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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

The November WH2020 Democratic debate and another reminder that they do these things better in the country where Boris was born

The November WH2020 Democratic debate and another reminder that they do these things better in the country where Boris was born

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Biden makes another gaffe so situation normal Overnight we have had the latest Democratic party debate as part of the prolonged process to determine who should fight against Donald Trump in the presidential election next November. The event took place after a weekend that had seen new polling in Iowa and New Hampshire showing the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar, Pete Buttiegieg, moving to clear leads in Iowa and New Hampshire – the first two states to decide. Their…

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Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

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Write about what you know, they say. So I don’t normally write about American politics, about which I don’t pretend to have any special understanding. I’ll happily bet on it though. I’m going to break my habit now, to consider four related markets on Betfair and their interrelationship, to see if I can find some relative value. Let’s start with the simplest: the winning party for the 2020 presidential election. The last traded price for the Democrats was 1.92, implying…

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With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

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Ladbrokes and Betfair have now got markets up on the first big hurdle in WH2020 – the Iowa Caucuses which are scheduled for February 3rd next year. Because of their historical importance and that so many Democrats are contenders this looks set to be a hugely significant day and a very big betting event. The first thing to remember about them is that only a smallish proportion of Democrats and Republicans actually participate. This time for both parties it might…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

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If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states. How rare? Well, let’s look at the history for a second: 2016 – Clinton won Iowa 2012 – Obama won both 2008 – Obama won Iowa 2004 – Kerry won both 2000 – Gore won both 1996 – Clinton won both…

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All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

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Current odds on the Democratic nominee: Biden 25%, Warren 22%, Harris 19%, Sanders 11%, Buttigieg 6%, Yang 4% pic.twitter.com/rVaaaZz3pN — BetData (@betdatapolitics) August 6, 2019 The betting is clear. Former vice president and 2 times White House campaign failure, Jo Biden, is back as favourite in the betting on the Democratic nomination on Betfair. It is hard to see any real change here except some of the long shots pulling out of the race between now and the Iowa caucuses…

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The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign so far – Kamala Harris taking on Joe Biden on race

The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign so far – Kamala Harris taking on Joe Biden on race

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My immediate betting reaction after watching the second WH2020 Democratic debate was to place a bet on California Senator, Kamala Harris for the nomination. Her confrontation with ex-VP, Joe Biden, seen in the clip above, is the one that is being focused on by the US media and will surely be repeated time and time again. As can be seen it was personal and powerful and demonstrated her powerful communication skills. It also exposed the frailty of the front runner…

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Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

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Now she’s got to overhaul Joe Biden While all the focus in the UK has been on the CON leadership race there’ve been significant moves in the fight for the 2020 Democratic nomination. This comes as the many contenders, there are more than 20 of them, focus on the first national TV debates between the hopefuls later in the month. These are seen as the formal start of the campaign. Until now just about all the polling has had former…

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