Above is the latest betting chart on the current race for the White House which has seen a big decline in the chances of a Trump victory with a corresponding increase in Joe Biden’s position As you would expect the chart is very similar to the trend in the polls where the current RCP average has Biden 9.8% ahead. It is important to stress that in the national polls Joe Biden is doing markedly better than Hillary Clinton was at…
So many WH2020 polls are coming out at the moment but virtually all are showing the same big picture – Biden with double digit leads. Tonight sees the above from the reputable Pew Research which has produced the above graphic on its latest findings which gives a good picture of the divide.
Trump may recover but he could be overwhelmed Donald Trump has always treated his presidency as a game show; one where success is measured in ratings and dollars. Controversy is to be welcomed: it keeps attention on him and his fans love it. As politics, it’s been relatively successful – enough so to win him the presidency, even if his approval figures have never been much to write home about and the mid-terms were a serious set-back. Events, however, have…
This last weekend was going to be the moment when Trump would seriously bounce back in his re-election effort with a mass rally in Tulsa Oklahoma. Unfortunately for him and his team the event proved to be something of a disaster with just over 6k in the 19k seat venue. A second location nearby to deal with the overflow was abandoned when it became clear the numbers weren’t there. This was in spite of all the boasts and predictions Trump…
In a move that seems unprecedented Facebook has taken down Trump ads infringing the sites policies against organized hate. This looks like a big pointer to how it will operate at WH2020 where the giant social media site was expected to play a huge role. The ads involved are said to have attacked what the Trump campaign described as “Dangerous MOBS of far-left groups,” featured an upside-down triangle. It is said the triangle “is practically identical to that used by…
The revelations make Trump’s WH2020 re-election challenge even harder The big news in the White House race overnight are the first revelations from a book that’s just about to be published by John Bolton – who served as the National Security Advisor for seventeen months. What makes this very different from other memoirs on the Trump presidency is that it comes from someone at the very top who was closely involved in observing the President’s foreign policy dealings at first…
This one is particularly important because Senator Lindsay Graham has emerged as the main attack dog for Trump. It very much undermines what he is trying to do now as part of helping the President get re-elected. This is potentially a powerful line of attack on Trump raising questions over the President’s health and ,mental capacity.
The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night. Why? Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016….