This last weekend was going to be the moment when Trump would seriously bounce back in his re-election effort with a mass rally in Tulsa Oklahoma. Unfortunately for him and his team the event proved to be something of a disaster with just over 6k in the 19k seat venue. A second location nearby to deal with the overflow was abandoned when it became clear the numbers weren’t there.
This was in spite of all the boasts and predictions Trump had made ahead of the event. It is clear that he needs big events like this to energise himself and the overall campaign something that the pandemic has made very difficult in recent months.
What seems to have happened is that there wa a huge movement on social media to book tickets for the rally and then not turn up. Hence the empty seats.
Inevitably this has impacted on the WH2020 betting as the chart above shows. Biden is the strong odds-on favourite to win on November 2nd.
I just wonder whether Trump might decide to pull out of the race rather than face a likely big defeat. For the experience of White House races in the past is that generally incumbent Presidents get re-elected and he should be doing better.
There’s little doubt that his re-election effort has been thrown off-course by his response to the police murder of George Floyd which has sparked off worldwide demonstrations. A Fox news poll found that voters response to the protests was Favourable 57% Unfavourable 35%.
I find this polling question quite revealing.
Which is better – to have people voting for you more because they dislike your opponent or specifically like you?