Will you be the Shadsy of 2010? With the new year just over a week old but with plenty of political activity already, it’s time to sharpen your punditry skills and make your predictions for what will be a big year in UK politics. For the first time, the prediction competition is being hosted by the new Election Game site. Rather like Formula One but with elections, the Game offers a full championship season, with the first deadlines being next…
The PB Competition Results Revealed It’s that time of year again – to look ahead and make resolutions, but perhaps even more importantly, to see how you fared in the PB 2009 Prediction Competition. The clear winner, including a magisterial performance in the local elections section, is Ladbrokes’ finest in the shape of Shadsy – the long hours spent looking after the Magic Sign’s politics desk have clearly paid off – congratulations Shadsy and many thanks for all your betting…
How will Politicalbetting’s finest do in the year ahead? With a providential 100 entries exactly for the PB forecaster of the year competition, the predictions have been crunched and the key findings are now available. PM, Opposition Leader, Lib Dem leader at Xmas: 96% and above for all three current incumbents. Speaker at Xmas: Martin 65% Campbell 23% Chancellor at Xmas: Darling 71% Balls 21% Ireland Yes %: Average 47.4%, 56% predict a second “No” Euro averages: Con 37, Lab…
Back by popular request to sharpen your forecasting skills On Christmas Day 2009 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer) 1. Prime Minister 2. Leader of the Opposition 3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats 4. The Speaker of the House of Commons 5. Chancellor of the Exchequer In 2009… (Predictions for questions 6-10 should be made to the nearest percentage point) 6. What will be the YES percentage in the Irish EU referendum? 7. What will be the…
Mayor Competition Results – how did you do? Congratulations to Andy Cooke, one of pb’s leading analysts and number-crunchers, on a clear victory in the PB London Mayor prediction competition. Andy’s overall score was just 5.07 and he also had the best first preference score of 4.59. Richard Stoneman was runner-up with a score of 6.87 while Dave Hague took third with 7.39. Fourth-placed Jack Peterson on 7.71 had the best final vote predictions, being just 0.12 away from the…
So will it be Ken or Boris? – the PBC London Mayor Competition Just four days until London goes to the polls – who do you think will be the new Mayor and how will the various candidates fare? You will be asked to predict the first preference shares for Ken, Boris, and Brian, plus the BNP, Greens, Left List, and UKIP, and then the final vote share for your predicted overall winner. (Final vote share is winner’s total votes…
A look at the Forecaster of the Year numbers The above table shows the leading predictions for the “what will happen in 2008?” section – there were 106 entries altogether. Other key findings: Jacqui Smith is only predicted to remain as Home Secretary for an average 253 days, while Darling’s average predicted tenure at No 11 is 287 days. The average high/low poll figures for the parties are Labour 37/28, the Conservatives 44/35, and the Lib Dems 22/14, while the…
Who is going to come out top this year? Politics in the first few days of 2008 has already burst into life with the Iowa caucuses – so what will happen in the rest of the year? Back by popular request, test your forecasting skills once again with the PBC prediction competition. Due to the likely number of entries, the competition this year will be in spreadsheet format, which will mean that collating and marking can be greatly speeded up…