CON SPREAD RANGES 340 – 345 Sporting Index 338 – 343 ExtraBet 344 – 347 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 220 – 225 Sporting Index 221 – 226 ExtraBet 215.5 – 221.5 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market Has the Ipsos-MORI aggregate moved the markets? After a week which saw a dramatic move against the Tories on the spread betting markets things have now…
Sporting Index Is it Brown that’s now looking a bit vulnerable? One of the great attractions of spread-betting is that you can close positions down and pocket any profits months or even years before the event has been resolved. Another attraction if you are really serious is that you can operate on a credit basis which means you don’t have to put up any money when you make your bet. So in the early hours of Sunday morning after seeing…
CON SPREAD RANGES —– Sporting Index 334 – 339 ExtraBet 342 – 350 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 222 – 227 ExtraBet 211 – 220 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53 – 54 Betfair Line market There’ve been some sharp moves on the betting markets in the wake of the latest polling. Our PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate a result based on betting prices, has the projected…
CON SPREAD RANGES 347 – 352 Sporting Index 343 – 348 ExtraBet 351.5 – 355.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 212 – 217 Sporting Index 213 – 218 ExtraBet 211 – 214 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 55 – 58 ExtraBet 53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market But the money is still well ahead of the seat projections As suggested here on Saturday morning the tightening of the Tory polling position over Labour…
Have the markets got them priced too high? There’s been little reaction overnight on the spread-betting markets to the YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls with Conservative leads of 7% and 8% respectively. These are gaps that take us firmly into hung parliament territory – a situation that’s reached with a Tory seat total of 324. Compare that with the spreads above. SportingIndex at 6am had a range of 350 – 355 seats which is well above the hung parliament threshold and…
Why is there such a difference in the spreads? In the panel above are the commons seat spreads from Sporting Index and the firm that used to be called IG and now operates as ExtraBet. For punters what is marked is the the quite substantial difference between the two markets. They are within one seat of each other with Labour but look at the difference with the Tory spread and the Lib Dem one. In terms of the overall outcome…
The PB Index: CON MAJ 52 (-8) When we last calculated the PB Index just four days ago the differing numbers from the two weekend polls seemed to be cancelling each other out – at least in the eyes of punters wanting to risk their money. But that’s all changed following the publication of the Guardian ICM poll which had the Tories unchanged on 40% but saw the Labour share move up two to 31 points. The PB Index, is…
The PB Index: CON MAJ 60 (nc) After a night which has seen two very different views on the state of political opinion in the country what better than to look at how punters are reacting. Are they putting their cash behind the YouGov 40-31-16 or the ComRes 41-24-21? That’s a huge variation in the Labour share which it is hard to explain. Today’s PB Index, which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seat betting…