New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6pm
This will be the third public poll since the by election was called and the first two have had UKIP in the lead by reasonable margins. Watch this space
SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI
LAB could be down to just 4 seats @IpsosMORI chart showing the detail of their sensational Scottish poll. pic.twitter.com/3w4Tpu9Pj3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 Electoral Calculus has LAB down to just 4 Scots MPs if it votes at GE15 as in today's Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll. pic.twitter.com/FSkxbrUSRJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 At the Holyrood election in May 2011 @IpsosMORI was the most accurate pollster. All came top = on the IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October…
Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead
The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…
Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4
4 out of the five last polls have been level-pegging It’s been a big polling day with three surveys already all of them pointing to the fact that the race has got very tight. Just published is the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4= The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last…
Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead
Neil Findlay – a possible runner in Scots LAB leadership race pic.twitter.com/whhZWYLUSD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2014 Look beyond Westminster for likely contenders So far the bookmakers appear to have worked on the assumption that it was there for the taking for the so-called Westminster ‘big beasts’ of Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy with Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour Deputy the main MSP contender. However with both Brown and Sarwar now ruling themselves out, the field opens considerably….
If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line
South Yorkshire and the 2012 PCC election result. pic.twitter.com/euAeJCdJfo — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 18, 2014 The blues surely want UKIP to be stopped even if that means LAB winning Looking at the result 2 years ago for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner the outcome of Thursday’s by election appears to be a foregone conclusion – a LAB HOLD on an even lower turnout. But the dramatic and worrying events in Rotherham combined with the UKIP surge so…
No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15
No Overall Majority now a 51% chance on the Betfair exchange – see trend pic.twitter.com/1xJhh3rO0s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 @MSmithsonPB We have the probability of no overall majority at 81%. Even those reduced odds look like a good deal. — Election Forecast UK (@Election4castUK) October 26, 2014 It really is hard to argue against The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders…
Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections
Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%) SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count Rogate on Chichester (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 342 (71% -20%), UKIP 138 (29%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 204 (42%) on a swing of…