South Yorkshire and the 2012 PCC election result. pic.twitter.com/euAeJCdJfo
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 18, 2014
The blues surely want UKIP to be stopped even if that means LAB winning
Looking at the result 2 years ago for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner the outcome of Thursday’s by election appears to be a foregone conclusion – a LAB HOLD on an even lower turnout.
But the dramatic and worrying events in Rotherham combined with the UKIP surge so close to the general election have led Farageâ€™s party into believing that they might take this one as well.
They are fighting this hard in an area that has been dominated for decades by LAB. If they do it it could have repercussions in similar LAB heartland areas next May.
One factor that makes this a possibility is the voting system which is like the one in mayoral elections where voters have two choices – the second one being counted if no candidate gets an overall majority on first choices.
- If the Tories are 3rd on the first count what’s going to happen to their second preferences given that there’s no LD contender? Could it be Tory votes that win it for UKIP?
Given what’s happening nationally and the Rochester by election the last thing that the blues want just now is another huge election boost for UKIP. Yet it must be highly likely that many CON voters will place UKIP second given that their other options will be LAB and the English Democrats.
My guess is that many will simply leave the second box blank – an action of itself that could help UKIP. The Conservative party interest here is to stop UKIP even if that means a LAB win.