4 out of the five last polls have been level-pegging
It’s been a big polling day with three surveys already all of them pointing to the fact that the race has got very tight.
Just published is the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4=
The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last general election.
- Polls that are level pegging represent a 3.5% CON-LAB swing and mean, if applied on a uniform swing basis, that the party would lose seats. The Tories need a margin of 6% to ensure that they stop losing seats to LAB
The Tory hope is that they’d make up some of their losses with gains from Lib Dems but yellow strong incumbency will make that harder than it seems.
Latest YouGov has CON & LAB level pegging as well. CON 32% (-1) LAB 32% (-1) UKIP 18% (+2) LD 8% (=)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2014