CON literature in Rochester is probably a taster for GE15. Looks quite effective pic.twitter.com/s8krhqg6KF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 And the polling that suggests they’ll struggle with UKIP voters
Excellent from YouGov & a reminder how to treat polls. 15% said they'd heard of politician who doesn't exit. Men most pic.twitter.com/y2RwefTG2L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014
While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture. The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of…
The EU Budget deal has moved the story on and taken the pressure off If you have bad news to get out, then Friday evening is as good a time as any to do it. MPs have gone back to their constituencies, the public is paying less attention and it falls in that gap between the weekday and weekend media. The timing of the announcement that the government is to pay the £1.7bn demanded by the EU – late, in…
Mevagissey on Cornwall (Lab Defence) Result: Conservative 348 (32% +8%), UKIP 281 (26% -2%), Labour 204 (19% -11%), Liberal Democrats 197 (18% +4%), Greens 50 (5% -2%) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 67 (6%) on a swing of 5% from UKIP to Conservative Bilton on Rugby (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 668 (42%), UKIP 325 (20%), Liberal Democrats 280 (18%), Labour 212 (13%), Independent 60 (4%), Greens 37 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of…
BBC News says some LAB MPs have told chair of parliamentary party that EdM should stand down http://t.co/2SRcUMXoty pic.twitter.com/7be3uKBRWd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Is it worth a 6/1 bet? William Hill make it a 6/1 shot that Ed Miliband will go before GE15 http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Generally leaders hold on even in the most difficult of circumstances. With Labour it is even more complicated because the rules for getting rid of an incumbent make…
Could GE15 in England be like GE05 which the Tories won on votes but were 92 seats behind on seats CON 35.7% England vote: 194 MPS LAB 35.5% England vote: 286 MPs GE2005 from Commons Research paper. LAB loses to CON on votes in England but comes out with 92.more MPs pic.twitter.com/59DFyk51OU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 A stark reminder of the impact of first past the post Labour might have collapsed in Scotland but the gainers are…
October was a month best forgotten by Ed Miliband, though reference to his memory may not aid that process. Apart from the mess of a conference speech (and indeed, the conference generally, which was Labour’s last big set-piece before they launch their manifesto next year), it contained the near-miss at Heywood & Middleton and ended with his personal ratings dropping to levels that are so subterranean they could be mined for Helium-3. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the net result of all that…