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One of the key figures in attacking Trump over his immigration policies that have led to children being taken away from their parents is Kamala Harris – Senator from California. She’s high profile and articulate and inevitably is being pressed about whether she might run for White House in 2020. Harris — the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India — is very much seen as a defender of immigrants. So in her appearance before the cameras, after visiting an…

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You’ve got to marvel at Team Corbyn’s ambivalence Just 19% of Labour voters in today’s YouGov poll think that the decision to leave the EU was right with 72% saying wrong. I think this is the widest split there’s been. Yet in spite of being out of line with party supporters the leadership has pursued an approach to Brexit that is very different. The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue. Voters in most of the LAB…

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Several bookies have now got odds up who is going to succeed David Dimbleby as the host of the long running BBC series Question Time. Most of them showing a similar assessment to Ladbrokes which features in the panel above. My understanding is that the program is made by an independent production house which clearly will have a view about who should take over from Dimbleby. So this is not going to be a sole BBC decision. The Producers will…

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Is she going to be able to survive? Over the past year I’ve had a pretty good record with my political bets which have come to fruition. I was on the Democrats in the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections and, of course, backed the LDs to beat the Tories in last week’s by-election. I lost on the Arizona special election and my long-shot for the Tory leadership, Damian Green, fell by the wayside earlier in the year. My other significant…

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These have been dark times for pragmatic politicians. Both the Conservative party and the Labour party have been taken over by politicians pursuing projects for ideological reasons, uninterested in any evidence as to whether those projects were actually beneficial for the nation. In both parties, moderates have been marginalised as the extremists compete to apply purity tests for their projects. Since the election last year, neither group of ideologues has yet established a decisive polling lead. In the wake of…

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Thanks to Liverpool getting through to the Champion’s league final and the ongoing series of strikes on SNCF – the French railway system we have a problem this weekend running PB. TSE is off to Kiev to support his beloved Liverpool while I am having to bring my holiday forward by two days so our train trip down to Andalusia won’t be disrupted by the strikes. The result is there is no one “on duty” over the weekend. So we…

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Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that he’ll be be out this year It hasn’t been the best of periods for Commons Speaker, John Bercow, who now finds himself embroiled in a row of what he might or might not have said about Andrea Leadsom. This follows the bullying allegations that have been aired a lot recently. The big issue for prospective punters is whether he’s reached a point where his position is untenable and I don’t think we are there yet….

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This is the first published polling since last week’s local and the findings also include the latest voting intention numbers from the firm – CON 43%+1, LAB 38=, LD 9+2. My view is that non-voting intention numbers are probably a better way of measuring the political climate simply because those sampled are being asked for an opinion not a prediction how how they might or might not act in four years time. The young-old split has dominated polling for the…

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