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Category: Coalition

PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

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Look in any company report, and you’ll see pages of details about executive compensation. And the biggest part of this is – however dressed up – share options. Get the share price moving, and management is set to make serious money. But what if share options made companies, and the economy, more fragile and encouraged poor decisions. This time, we’re talking about the dark side of share options. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet

PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

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In my last demographics piece, I looked at the boost developed countries got from falling fertility freeing up females from childcare duties. (I adore alliteration.) This piece looks to the recent past, to the experience of Japan, and asks what next? And the picture isn’t, if we’re going to be honest, a pretty one. Rising life expectancy, and birth rates below replacement almost everywhere mean that population pyramids will continue to invert. Old people produce less economic output than young…

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The Senate Kavanaugh hearing begins taking evidence from the woman who says she was sexually attacked by Trump’s nominee

The Senate Kavanaugh hearing begins taking evidence from the woman who says she was sexually attacked by Trump’s nominee

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BBC News Its odds-on that he’ll be confirmed All eyes in the US are on the Senate Justice committee which is taking evidence from a woman who says she was sexually assaulted by Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy, Brett Kavanaugh. Christine Blasey Ford told the committee that Kavanaugh’s attack on her 38 years ago had left her “afraid and ashamed”. Because of the power of the Supreme Court and that its members serve for life the stakes couldn’t…

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More evidence that Corbyn is not now getting anything like the personal backing from GE2017 LAB voters than he was

More evidence that Corbyn is not now getting anything like the personal backing from GE2017 LAB voters than he was

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An average of 51% of 2017 Labour voters now pick Corbyn as the best choice for PM, compared to May and 'Not Sure', down from an average of 77% across the summer of 2017. In comparison, Con / May vote holding up surprisingly well, averaging 75%, down from 87% last summer. pic.twitter.com/507Rw7UHql — Statto (@james_bowley) September 24, 2018 PB regulars will know that I am a great fan of leader ratings and believe that they are a better pointer to…

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Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved

Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved

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Punters are hanging on to their cash Given the enormity of what’s happened at the EU Salzburg summit I though it useful to look at reaction across a range of market on the Betfair exchange: Next UK General Election most seats It was CON 50% chance to LAB 45% on Betfair 24 hours ago and the position hasn’t moved UK to leave the EU by 29/03/2019 This was a 63.5% chance 24 hours ago and is now a 62.5% one….

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Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

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Sure the Deltapoll for Prospect finds that three times as many LAB voters than CON ones blame Israel but it is the huge “both equally” numbers that are a surprise. Here as the chart shows there’s really not that much difference between supporters of the two main parties and the whole sample. This does suggest at the very minimum that this is far from the top of most people’s concerns. Given the polling it is hard to disagree with Martin…

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Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

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For all the controversy over anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn’s curious selection of international friends, there seems little doubt that Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is secure. Losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40 didn’t dislodge him, and since then his position has been strengthened by the GE2017 campaign. Accusations of anti-Semitism and terrorist sympathies are water off a duck’s back. However, it doesn’t follow that he will remain leader for an extended period. If…

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PB Video Analysis: Five Things That Will Surprise You

PB Video Analysis: Five Things That Will Surprise You

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https://youtu.be/OCOFYFDLWic We’re all routinely wrong. Mostly that’s because we’re simply don’t know any better. But increasingly it’s the result of us reading things on Facebook, Twitter, and the like that push persuasive narratives. The stories make sense, so we believe them. But all too often, the data and stories don’t match. And when they don’t… well, our first instinct is to discard the data, looking for reasons why it’s not true. So this video looks at five things where reality…

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