An average of 51% of 2017 Labour voters now pick Corbyn as the best choice for PM, compared to May and 'Not Sure', down from an average of 77% across the summer of 2017.
In comparison, Con / May vote holding up surprisingly well, averaging 75%, down from 87% last summer. pic.twitter.com/507Rw7UHql
— Statto (@james_bowley) September 24, 2018
PB regulars will know that I am a great fan of leader ratings and believe that they are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys. That was certainly the case at GE1992, GE2015 and GE2017 – all elections where the standard voting polls didn’t do well.
This morning I posted on Twitter the top tweet showing the just 34% of those who had voted Labour on June 8th last year now believe that the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is doing well. This seems a remarkably low figure and one party should be concerned about. I cannot recall EdM ever slipping to that level.
The second Tweet has an analysis of how CON and LAB voters are responding to “who would make the best PM ?” questions. Normally you would expect party voters to go with their man or woman but the trend recorded here is quite striking.
The good news for the Tories is that almost nobody is questioning Corbyn’s survival chances in the way they are with TMay.