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The view of those ready to risk their cash betting on politics is that Johnson’s cabinet appointments suggest that the new PM is aiming for an early general election perhaps this year. GE2019 is now almost an evens chance on the Betfair exchange. He takes over a parliamentary party that is somewhat smaller than TMay inherited when she became leader in 2016. She had a majority and blew it with her decision to call GE2017 which, of course, saw the…

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Ladbrokes opening prices And no change in the 43% chance of a 2019 General Election Betfair market from Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Now 6/4 that he’ll go this year Corbyn is receiving backlash today following last night’s BBC Panorama documentary on Labour anti-Semitism. And bookmakers have slashed his odds of stepping down – or being pushed – from the party. Paddy Power make it 6/4 that he leaves Labour this year, in from 4/1, or 8/1 from 16/1 that he is forced to depart before the end of the month. I am not convinced. Under his leadership he has totally entrenched his…

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Boris will say anything. A very weak, empty performance – but the forces to whom he appeals don’t seem to care. https://t.co/NWy4qCvoaq — Anthony Glees @anthonyglees (@AnthonyGlees) July 9, 2019 I'd say Boris Johnson is clear about what he is trying to achieve; avoid detail, focus on optimism. Jeremy Hunt can't decide whether he is asking questions or making his case. — tom bradby (@tombradby) July 9, 2019 Tory leadership debate, fuck help us. — Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 9,…

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BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll CON 24%(+2)BREX 23%(+1)LDEM 20%(+1)LAB 18%(-2)GRN 9%(-1) ?Lowest ever rating with @YouGov back to 2002 ?Only time as low as 18% was IpsosMORI in May’09 ?57% of Lab ‘17 voters back other partieshttps://t.co/DdJkLH2g8b pic.twitter.com/WJrZaHwXXv — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 3, 2019 Paying the price for its Brexit equivocation? It is not often outside election campaigns for a paper like the Times to make its main story it a Westminster voting intention poll…

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NEW IOWA poll from @davidbinder , via @linkiowa pro-ethanol group, shows a wiiiide open caucus after the first debate: WARREN: 20HARRIS: 18BIDEN: 17SANDERS: 12PETE: 10 note: N = 600, which is as big as some of the Dem samples in public polling *national* samples. — Jonathan Martin (@jmart) July 3, 2019 The reverberations from the first debates continue For several decades the state of Iowa has played a key part in shaping White House race every four years. For its…

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Hardly gives confidence if there is an early election With all the focus on the CON leadership we haven’t looked at the official opposition for a while. Well the latest Ipsos-MORI polling gives us a peg. One thing this pollster has been doing for decades is always asking leader rating questions in its regular political poll. Today’s numbers show just 18% of the sample saying they’re satisfied with the LAB leader and 75% saying they’re not sets something of a…

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