The view of those ready to risk their cash betting on politics is that Johnson’s cabinet appointments suggest that the new PM is aiming for an early general election perhaps this year. GE2019 is now almost an evens chance on the Betfair exchange.
He takes over a parliamentary party that is somewhat smaller than TMay inherited when she became leader in 2016. She had a majority and blew it with her decision to call GE2017 which, of course, saw the Tories lose seats overall taking with it their majority. A number of CON MPs have left and things could get worse next week if the Tories fail to hold onto Brecon and Radnor.That adds one to the total of opposition MPs and decreases the tory total by 1 – thus creating a gap of two.
His cabinet has some radical changes and the number of senior ministers who will now sit as backbench MPs could prove troublesome. Most won’t have loyalty to the new man.
Overshadowing everything is the October 31st Brexit deadline and the issue of a no deal Brexit which could have a catastrophic effect on the economy and thing like the supply of medicines. Would he dare go through with what he said she would? One problem with the ministers who have gone is that they have a much more detailed knowledge of what no deal could mean and won’t be shy about coming forward.