Could Dave be tempted to go for an election? The above Tweet from the Sun certainly seemed to have got people going overnight overnight but how feasible is the idea of the blues going it alone? Surely the Sun’s political team have got this one wrong? Although a 43% share sounds good the poll numbers represents an increase in the CON share of 6% and an increase in the LAB share if 4.3%. That’s a swing to the Tories from…
Poll Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sunday Times 10/07/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 09/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 08/07/10 41 36 17 YouGov/Sun 07/07/10 40 36 17 YouGov/Sun 06/07/10 41 36 15 YouGov/Sun 05/07/10 40 36 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 02/07/10 41 36 16 YouGov/Sun 01/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 30/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 29/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 28/06/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 22/06/10…
Can it be fitted into the localism agenda? Earlier this week, Francis Maude gave a speech in which it was trailed that he may signal the end of national pay structures for the civil service. In the event, he didn’t touch on it, which caused some, such as Paul Waugh, to wonder whether the government decided that it was a battle too far at the moment. Perhaps, although it might simply be that the policy’s just not well enough developed….
What’ll the schools fiasco do to the race? We’ve still got about two months to go before the Labour movement starts voting on its next leader and I’ve long argued that it’ll be the political environment at the time that will determine the outcome. It’s how Labour collectively feels about itself in eight or nine weeks time that matters and I just wonder whether Ed Balls has been given a golden opportunity to show his prowess with the Gove school…
What’ll the LDs do if the referendum is lost? Precisely ten months from today we’ll be getting the results of the referendum on the AV voting system – that’s assuming that the necessary legislation gets through unscathed and, of course, nothing happens in the meantime that causes the coalition to splinter. Given that Labour seems to be edging towards opposition and the lack of enthusiasm from the Tories then the chance of it being approved don’t look good. What then…
Would Labour be hurt most? Some interesting YouGov data this evening on how the creation of the coalition has shifted second preference choices – something that could be crucial if AV did come in. Not surprisingly Labour supporters are now less likely to opt for the Lib Dems while the yellows are more favourably disposed to the blues. There are, of course, fewer Lib Dem supporters now compared with the general election. Mike Smithson
2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…
Can we now rule out a second 2010 election? In spite of all the pre-VAT vote speculation only two Lib Dems MPs voted with the “Noes” in last night’s commons division on the plan to increase the rate to 20%, outlined in last week’s budget and the measure went through with a majority of 76. Judging by some of the pre-event build-up this rebellion was much smaller than was being suggested and, no doubt, both Clegg and Cameron will breathe…