Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 35 38 18 9 Populus/Times 06/02/11 36 39 11 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 23/01/11 ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 42 11 11 YouGov/Sun 23/02/11 36 44 11 9 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 ***PAPA*** LATEST 35.4 40.6 12.4 11.6 With every new poll PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average gets updated and can be found on its own dedicated page. It’s not often…
Methodology comparison YouGov ICM Sampling Sample is restricted to members of its polling panel – those who have registered with the firm and on whom the firm has a mass of data. The firm polls by phone making randomised calls to residential phone numbers throughout Britain. Theoretically anybody with a land-line can take part in a survey. Political weighting To ensure balanced samples this is done by party ID based on the firm’s own data. This can be controversial –…
Which is most to blame for the cuts? (YouGov) CON-LD coalition Last Labour government Both of them Neither 21/02/11 25 41 24 5 07/02/11 25 38 26 6 25/01/11 26 40 24 5 10/01/11 22 40 25 8 11/12/10 23 41 24 7 15/11/10 22 43 23 7 07/10/10 17 47 20 10 20/09/10 21 44 22 7 06/09/10 22 45 20 6 31/08/10 23 45 20 6 16/08/10 22 45 21 6 02/08/10 22 45 20 6 19/07/10 21…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 37 (-7) 37 (-1) Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. With turnout filter the results was YES 51% NO 49% YouGov/Sun 18/02/11 34 (-5) 30 (-9) Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37…
How worried should the government be about Interest Rates? The era of ultra low interest rates appears to be coming to an end. Recently, analysts have claimed that rate rises are now not only possible but “inevitableâ€. How dangerous is this for the government? We got used to low and stable interest rates under Labour. If rates rise, it will undoubtedly come as a shock to many. But there are also increasing numbers of people who will benefit. Is the…
Is it a holding role or a prelude to reform? The likely appointment of former Conservative Party Chairman, Governor of Hong Kong and EU Commissioner, Chris Patten, to be the next chairman of the BBC Trust is likely to be a controversial one. It’s not the first time that the senior board member has been an active politician (the very first chairman of the board of governors had only recently been a government chief whip when appointed), but certainly renews…
The Irish Election – Part 2 If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a boost in the polls as the election campaign builds up under their new leader Micheál Martin, they will have been disappointed by the latest polls. Last weekend’s RedC poll put the party’s first-preference support even lower than the previous week’s: Fianna Fáil 15% (-2) Fine Gael 38% (+3) Labour 20% (-2) Green 3% (+1) Sinn Féin 10% (-3) Other 14% (+3). A Millward-Brown poll published Tuesday was…
2007 Scottish Election: Constituency Date LAB % SNP % CON % LD % TOTAL ERROR Actual Results 03/05/07 32.2 32.9 16.6 16.2 YouGov 02/05/07 31 (-1.2) 37 (+4.1) 13 (-3.6) 14 (2.2) 11.1 ICM 30/04/07 32 (-0.2) 34 (+1.1) 13 (-3.6) 16 (-0.2) 4.9 Populus 30/04/07 29 (-3.2) 33 (+0.1) 13 (-3.6) 15 (-1.2) 8.1