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Category: Coalition

Why is the Tory vote share holding up?

Why is the Tory vote share holding up?

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What happened to the unpopularity Cameron predicted? It’s been an expectation of many pundits and politicians that introducing government cuts will make the government unpopular. Two months ago, David Cameron himself repeated that sentiment. It’s certainly true that for the Lib Dems, government has brought unpopularity but the Tory share has remained just about unchanged. Even the Lib Dems may not be suffering from the cuts in general. The tuition fees issue and trust issue generally has been corrosive and…

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How involved are you in the political process?

How involved are you in the political process?

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PB Easter Survey: How active are you in politics? Tick all that apply. I’m a paid up member of a local party I attend local meetings I regularly deliver leaflets I canvas by phone I canvas on the door-step I am a candidate in the May 5th elections I help out on election days I generally go to my party’s national conferences I do none of the above   

MORI: The Tories move to a 2pc lead in England

MORI: The Tories move to a 2pc lead in England

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Is this a pointer to the locals? As a follow-up to last night’s thread about the English local elections I thought it’d be useful to extract the England only data from this week’s Ipsos-MORI poll. The firm is the only which which shows such a breakdown. The totals are above for “certains to vote” are – CON 43(+1): LAB 41(nc): LD 10(+1) with CON 39(+1): LAB 41(-1): LD 13(+2) amongst all those expressing a preference. The changes are on the…

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Is England where Miliband will prove he’s an election winner?

Is England where Miliband will prove he’s an election winner?

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Is this the most important of the 4 battle-grounds? There are four distinct contests on May 5th but only one which will provide real pointers as to the scale of the Labour recovery – the English local elections. A good result in Wales looks like a banker but the Ed Miliband-backed YES2AV campaign looks doomed and the latest polling suggest that the red team’s hopes of coming out top in Scotland might have been thwarted. It was in England on…

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Are Ed and Nick ever going to be loved by party supporters?

Are Ed and Nick ever going to be loved by party supporters?

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One of YouGov’s fortnightly trackers is to ask about voters’ perceptions of the three main parties including a question on leaders. Panellists are asked “Which party do you think it applies to most – the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats? – “Is led by people of real ability”. You would expect those sampled to choose the leader of the party that they say they’ll vote for and that certainly happens with the Tories with 70% choosing Cameron. I’d never…

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Will a NO vote provide the victory Dave was denied last May?

Will a NO vote provide the victory Dave was denied last May?

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Now will blue critics stop sniping at him? If the AV referendum does end up with an outcome close to last night’s ICM’s 58-42 to NO it will be a massive victory for David Cameron and an overwhelming vindication of his strategy of creating the coalition so he could take power last May. Ever since that event on May 11th 2010 the Tory right has been muttering against him and increasingly they’ve tried to dub him “an election loser” with…

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NO campaign moves into commanding lead

NO campaign moves into commanding lead

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Have ICM cracked the turnout question? Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%. This is a massive shift in the polling numbers from the pollster that many (including OGH Mike Smithson) regard as a gold-standard pollster. The Guardian write-up can be found here: key features are that the December ICM/Guardian poll had YES 6-points ahead, before NO drew level…

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Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

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Who’s going to get moved and when? Next month we’re likely to have the Coalition’s first reshuffle. Whatever happens, the Coalition will break new ground. David Cameron will have to walk a tightrope between the two parties. Can he refresh his tired team and maintain the Coalition’s equilibrium. Here are six candidates who might move: Cable, Hague, Clegg, Laws, Spelman and Lansley. All have had an “interesting” year. How many could be in a new job by the recess? How…

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