Welsh Constituency Result Result YouGov final poll YouGov Exit poll May 5 CON 25.0 20.0 21 LAB 42.3 47.0 44 LD 10.6 8.0 11 PC 19.3 18.0 17 I have not got the aggregate data on the regional list votes yet but will update when that becomes available. My understanding is that this is the first election for the Welsh assembly which has been regularly polled by YouGov and I sense that the firm will be disappointed with the outcome…
What’ll happen in the Yellow-Blue encounters? Above is a brief snapshot from the BBC site of what has been an appalling night for the LDs, a poor night for Labour in Scotland and a great night for the SNP. North of the border the projection from the BBC is that the SNP could have an overall majority which is a massive turnaround on what it looked like on April 20th. It is extraordinary that just fifteen days ago Labour was…
Telegraph Is Brogan right about Clegg winning the “big battle”? In an interesting piece for the Telegraph Ben Brogan is arguing that on the key policy issues it is the LDs who are largely setting the agenda. “.. No wonder Tories hope that from tomorrow, the Lib Dems will cease to call the tune. The dog will be free to wag its tail again – indeed, if anything, Mr Cameron will have to restrain those urging him to call an…
UPDATED What’ll be the impact of such an overwhelming defeat for YES? The final AV referendum polls are coming out and the latest, from ICM, has NO with an overwhelming 68-32 lead. If the split is anywhere near this tomorrow it will be a devastating blow to Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. There’s no consolation for them in the figures which represent a remarkable victory for David Cameron who has campaigned so effectively against the changes. Still to come are…
Lots of surveys have or are about to be published and I’ll try to get them out in a graphic form as soon as possible. The changes are on the last election in 2007. The list vote from YouGov is CON 13%: LAB 32%(+3): LD 7%(-4): SNP 35%(+4): Green 6%(+2) The list vote from YouGov is CON 19%:LAB 43%: LDEM 8%: Plaid 18%: UKIP 7% It’s projected that this will give an overall Labour majority. Mike Smithson
Surprisingly given the enormity of the event we got through the who half hour of PMQs without Osama’s killing coming up. Overall was a down-beat session with the house half empty ahead of tomorrow’s big elections. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron did pretty well during their exchanges and they came out about even. The big talking points has been on Nick Clegg. This is how the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan saw it:- “… But what jumped out watching it on…
Could YES really be ahead? The above message from Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, was posted less than an hour ago and has even affected the betting markets. His suggestion that there is a poll about with a YES lead of one point is extraordinary giving yesterday’s numbers from ComRes showing a 66-34 split to NO. My understanding is that there are three polls to come later today – Angus Reid, ICM and YouGov. Could it be that Ben has…
Is he worth a 14/1 bet? I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive a disastrous series of results on Thursday and whether Huhne, Farron or AN Other would be the likely successor. I believe that Clegg has an extraordinary level of resilience and if he wants to carry on then he will do so – any observations I make here on the leadership have to be seen in that context. A key…