Why the big differences in tonight’s polls?
YouGov/News International – CON 37%, LAB 42%, LD 9% ICM/Guardian – CON 37%, LAB 36%, LD 16% Populus/Times – CON 34%, LAB 39%, LD 11% It’s not often outside election periods that we get three polls in one evening all from established pollsters. That’s happened tonight and we see a big variation particularly between ICM and YouGov. I’ll be doing a more detailed post ionce we have the detailed data but a lot of the variation is down to methodology….
Lib Dems up 4 with Lab down 3 in new ICM poll
And the Tories move back into the lead The first of two telephone polls tonight is out – the Guardian monthly survey from ICM and the voting intention numbers suggest that thew biggest beneficiaries from the hacking scandal have been Nick Clegg’s Liib Dems. The shares, as seen in the chart are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 16. Clegg sees his party up 4 from the low of June and the best shares since February. Labour drop three and the…
Boosts for Labour & Miliband from ComRes
There’s a new ComRes online poll out for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror which has good news on leadership ratings for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg while Cameron sees a drop in his net position from a month ago. Labour are up three points on voting intention with Miliband’s net leadership rating down from -27% in June to 13% now. Clegg sees his ratings move from -37% to -31%. Cameron, meanwhile, sees a drop from from -7% to…
Did Miliband push it just too far?
Should he have just stuck to the inquiry process? It was a good PMQs today with Cameron performing substantially better than last week and at last Friday’s press conference. I gave it to the PM by 8 to 7 over Ed Miliband. Where the opposition leader did not get it quite right was when, in his six allocated questions, he sought to move on from the process into attacking Cameron on Coulson. This changed the tone of the occasion and…
As the scandal continues to dominate – here’s Marf
More of Marf’s work can be found at LondonSketchbook.com
Will Miliband’s BSkyB move split the coalition?
Can Labour expect the support of LDs and even some Tories? Several people have asked for my view of which way the 57 Lib Dem will vote if Ed Miliband goes ahead with his plan to move a motion on News Corporation’s planned take-over of the parts of BSkyB that it doesn’t already own. The debate and vote would take place on Wednesday and so far today we’ve seen comments from Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne. My guess is that…
Who will be without a seat when the music stops?
Where do the developments so far leave the key players? The phone-hacking scandal has produced a bad week for many people. Some have been arrested, some tainted by association, some have lost their job, some have had their judgement questioned. A newspaper of 168 years standing has been closed. Others no doubt wait nervously. It’s big and dramatic news – perhaps too much so. Retaining a sense of proportion at times like this is crucial and difficult, not least because…