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Can the discipline hold until and beyond 2015? It’s now over six years since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative Party. Assuming he’s still around to address the Tory conference this autumn, he’ll then be the third-longest serving leader of his party since Churchill. What’s particularly notable about this feat is how easy a ride he’s had in that time. His leadership has never seriously been threatened from within. The only ‘on principle’ resignation he’s suffered from his…

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The Revd Peter Ould marks your card Let’s get some preliminaries out of the way. As regards selection, the Archbishop of Canterbury is selected by the Crown Nominations Commission which is made up of lay, clergy and bishop members elected by the General Synod, together with some other co-opted and appointed members. You can see the current list here, though it is likely to change before the appointment of Rowan’s Successor. As far as I can see there is only one…

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Popular wisdom dictates that the popularity of governments and their chances of re-election depend on the economic comfort of the voters, and many experienced campaigners would agree with that. And it ought to be truer than ever in times of crisis like these. But is that what the data show? For a paper at the WAPOR conference being held in Gdansk, we looked at Ipsos* data covering 20 countries since 2007 measuring public perceptions of whether the economy is in…

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Guardian How’ll this help with blue brand decontamination? According to the lead story in the Guardian this morning the chancellor, George Osborne will announce the axing of the 50p tax rate in his budget next week “in a dramatic move that will delight business and the Tory right”. The report goes on”…the Liberal Democrats appear to recognise that they are not going to be able to block what is Osborne’s key demand for the budget, but are trying to maximise…

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The chart shows the Betfair betting based on an implied probability. @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Is the DPM making this the price for boundary changes? One aspect of yesterday’s PMQs, taken by Nick Clegg because Cameron is in the US, which has received very little attention was his throwaway comment in a reply to ex-minister, Peter Lilley, on the boundary changes. Lilley asked why Clegg was putting so much focus on reforming the house of Lords when there were so many more important issues to deal with. The DPM’s response was very telling:- “..There are…

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com