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Should you be taking the 12/1 bet on Jones for 3rd There’s a new London Mayoral poll just out from Comres which is showing a very different picture from that reported on Monday by YouGov. The first preference figures are with changes on the firm’s last Mayoral poll published on April 10th – Boris 45%-1/Ken 36%-5/Jones 6%+2/Paddick 5%-1/Benita 3%+3/UKIP 2%+1/BNP 2%+1 It was inevitable, as the race gathered pace, that the top two would see some shrinkage as other candidates…

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How come that afterwards there was such a big poll decline? So much has been talked about this week of the political power of the Murdoch empire that I thought I’d that it might be useful to reflect on the period before the last election. Look at the table of pre-election ICM polls above. By September/October 2009, the time of the Sun’s endorsement, the blues were in the 40s with a solid 17% lead and looked all set to be…

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Welcome to the best overnight political conversation on the net. Have a good evening. Latest YouGov -CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 9%; — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 According to the YouGov data 12% of Tory 2010 voters now say they are UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 New poll from Opinium has CON 31%-1/ LAB 38%+1/LD 11%+2/UKIP 8%-2 bit.ly/ISoqkN — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Next cabinet exit betting Odds Jeremy Hunt evens Andrew Lansley 8/1 Baroness Warsi 10/1 Cheryl Gillan 10/1 Vince Cable 10/1 Ken Clarke 10/1 Caroline Spelman 12/1 Theresa May 12/1 William Hague 16/1 Michael Moore 16/1 Ed Davey 20/1 Owen Paterson 20/1 Iain Duncan Smith 20/1 Michael Gove 20/1 David Cameron 25/1 Andrew Mitchell 33/1 Lord Strathclyde 33/1 Justine Greening 40/1 George Osborne 40/1 Danny Alexander 40/1 Eric Pickles 40/1 Nick Clegg 50/1 Philip Hammond 50/1 The Culture sec now evens…

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The “Hunt going today” odds tightens even further. Now 4/7.Was 13/8 an hour ago. See PaddyPower bit.ly/I8PkIO — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 Ed M plays class warrior: ‘The complacent arrogant posh boys don’t get it’ #PMQs — Sunday Times News (@ST_Newsroom) April 25, 2012 Nick Clegg shakes his head when Cameron says Hunt has his full support — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 EdM gets out the s-word Sleaze. Clear subliminal ref to 1990s. Cam redder than…

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Will it be harder getting Tory voters to the polls? As I mentioned on the last thread – yesterday I took the day off for my wife’s graduation and a family gathering and in what has become almost a PB tradition all hell let loose with a minister finding himself in deep water. It was the same with the Liam Fox explosion last autumn. Today the headlines are awful for the Tories and with PMQs and Rupert going before Leveson…

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Please take part in the big PB survey Which if these possible outcomes do you think will happen on May 3rd? (Tick all that apply) LAB will make 700 plus gains LAB will make 500-700 gains LAB will make fewer than 500 gains The LDs will have net gains against the Tories The LDs will NOT have net gains against the Tories The LDs will have fewer than 300 net losses The LDs will NOT have fewer than 300 net…

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CON 33 (-4) LAB 41 (+3) LD 15 (+2) UKIP 3% (-1) For the first time the firm has them in the 40s The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and has LAB in its best position with the pollster since the general election. The changes above are with the last ICM poll to be published not the last one in the Guardian which was a bit earlier. more follows @MikeSmithsonOGH