politicalbetting.com

A factor that might be helping the coalition and particularly the Tories is the price drop we’ve seen in the cost of petrol and diesel at the pumps. My car’s a diesel and a couple of weeks ago I paid £1.459 for litre. That’s now dropped to below £1.40 and the cost of a full tank was down about £3. This is much more important outside the big conurbations because the car plays a much bigger part for most people…

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Ladbrokes has a new market up on what will be the UKIP vote share be in the S.Shields byelection. 0-10% 6/1 10- 20 7/4 20-30 5/4 30-40 6/1 40+ 20/1 I like long shots so I’ve gone on the 30-40 option. 6/1 seems a good price. This might be crazy but Ukip did very well for me in Eastleigh beating both Labour and the Tories at nice odds. I like the look of the Ukip candidate who I feel will…

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We’ve had some technical problems today which is why there hasn’t been a new post all day. I’m at the PB gathering at Dirty Dicks where we’ve had a great turnout including a number who have travelled from as far as Manchester and Leeds to be here. I’ll report on things later. Mike Smithson

Revised. Pie chart with ICM’s how would you vote if Maggie was leader findings. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2013 The standard voting intention question New ICM phone poll sees CON 32+1: LAB 38-1: LD 15nc: Ukip 9+2 – which is the biggest share yet from the firm.. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2013 Who would you nominate as Maggie’s heir? ICM respondents asked who they’d nominate asThatcher’s heir:Cameron 16, Blair 15, Boris 12, Theresa May 5%,Farage…

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Voters disagree with Cameron’s description of Margaret Thatcher as “the greatest British peacetime prime minister” by 41 per cent to 33 per cent, according to a ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. And 60 per cent oppose taxpayer funding for next week’s funeral. The poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday this week, found little evidence of a “Thatcher effect” on voting intentions, putting LAB’s lead at eight points, down just one point since last month. UKIP…

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How long before there’s another female PM? One of the measures of the significance of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership is that despite being Britain’s first – and so far only – female prime minister, that fact is largely incidental compared to the achievements and actions of her government.  Women heads of government were rare at the time.  She was only the fourth elected female PM (and two of the earlier three followed either their husband or father as head of government);…

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