The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?
Your chance to predict to vote share At GE2010 UKIP’s national vote share was 3.1%. What will it be at the next general election? 0-5% 5-8% 8-11% 11-14% 14-17% 17-20% 20-23% 23-100% How many seats will they win? How many seats will UKIP win at the next general election? Zero 1 2-5 6-10 More than 10
Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll
The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections. Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch. Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right. Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking…
It’s going to be challenging for Cameron to appeal to both 2010 LDs and Ukip supporters at the same time
The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election. There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting…
Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s
And ComRes online has Ukip up to a record 19% for any firm ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high Amongst other questions If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU Agree: 49% Disagree: 27% Don’t know: 24% Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election Agree: 31% Disagree: 37%…
Hammond has the right coalition-building idea
Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems. In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture. By going out of his way…
Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defence Secretary Philip Hammond
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2013
If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement
I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 Coalition breakup = Early general election The main story in the Times this morning is a report that…