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Category: Coalition

Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

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70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010 After last week’s Thanet South poll there’s a second wave just out funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown and carried out by Survation. The picture that’s emerging is very similar to what the Ashcroft marginals poll found in September – that the Tories are faring worse in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals…

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Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

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Now that he is free from being a Member of Parliament, and not constrained by having to toe the party line, Chris Huhne has been offering his thoughts on a variety of subjects. Yesterday Chris Huhne wrote a piece in Juncture magazine which discusses on the formation of the current coalition in 2010, and the possibility for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition in 2015. (You can read the piece here and here’s the Guardian write up of the Huhne piece.) He says on…

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How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted

How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted

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If only white men voted here is what the 2012 map would have looked like source: http://t.co/RXZd6YqyW5 MAP: pic.twitter.com/6tMbcLyCsU — PoliticaI Charts (@PoliticalCharts) November 28, 2013 We’d probably get a similar pattern in the UK I find the chart above absolutely fascinating although not surprising. In the US, of course, the Democratic party colour is blue and the Republican one red. So the message is that it would be President Romney now if the franchise has been what it was…

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Miliband is still odds-on to become next PM

Miliband is still odds-on to become next PM

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Latest next PM betting odds EdM tight odds-on favourite Theresa May 16/1 Boris & Yvette 20/1 pic.twitter.com/RTnBitTLSd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2013 17 months left to go before GE2015 I don’t think any of these are a good bet at this stage. There’s a lot of water to run under the bridge. The only certainty is that the date in the fixed term parliament act for the next general election is May 7th 2015. It’s possible that the coalition…

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The Tories get 3pc closer in the ComRes phone poll for the Indy

The Tories get 3pc closer in the ComRes phone poll for the Indy

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Most see the blues as being for the rich The monthly phone poll by ComRes for the Indy is just out and has the Tories up 4 on the very low 28% recorded in October. This move is greater than the margin of error . But CON strategists might be concerned that the move back to the Tories has not been at the expense of Labour which also moves up. To have any chance of coming out with most seats…

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Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

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Markedly more in the marginals have made up their minds We’ve talked a lot on PB about the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB but that is not the whole picture as ex-Labour staffer blogger Hopi Sen notes. In an interesting post he highlights a significant group of voters who hardly get any attention to – the 2010 LDs who now say don’t know. He writes:- These people are not non-voters. They voted. They’re just not sure if, or how,…

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Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

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Pontrilas on Herefordshire (Con Defence) Result: It’s Our County 429 (47% +26%), Indepdenent 261 (28% -5%), Conservative 229 (25% -21%) It’s Our County GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 16% from Ind to IOC (24% from Con to IOC) Conservatives LOSE overall control of Herefordshire County Council Golcar on Kirklees (Lab Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,591 (48% +12% on 2012), Labour 901 (27% -13% on 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 450 (13%), Green 210 (6% -5% on 2012), Conservative 189…

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