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Everything is dependent on turnout YouGov asked a likelihood to vote question which moved UKIP into second place and saw LAB up 2. This looks set to be low turnout election which presents a huge challenge for the pollsters. They might accurately reflect the pattern of support as is being told to them but everything depends on whether people actually do take the trouble to exercise their vote. YouGov found that 38% said they were certain to vote which was…

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As has been pointed out many times before the segment of the electorate that has seen the biggest switch to UKIP is the one that the Tories always banked on – the oldies. Last month’s Populus aggregate found that the current UKIP support base has those aged 55+ accounting, as the chart shows, for nearly 60%. The biggest group of switchers based on past vote were 2010 Conservatives who now make up 45% of the UKIP support base. Oldies are…

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There’s a new Survation poll out this morning where the sample is restricted to those in employment either full-time or part-time. It was commissioned by Unions 21 but the target sample was all those working not just union members. There is nothing to compare this with in the past so it is hard to say whether there is a trend or not. Of those sampled 73% said they’d seen wages fall relative to the cost of living in last 2…

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Gove's comments about Etonians at top of the Tory party. The head is not amused. See http://t.co/LfLHY4RqS8 pic.twitter.com/7nK9l06xmq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2014 The Speccie’s Isabel Hardman has the story. The only problems for Number 10 is that this keeps the story running and it gives the impression that there are splits at the top. Maybe, as was being suggested at the weekend, senior Tories have given up on GE2015 and the focus now is on who will succeed…

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Results so far from latest by-elections see LDs doing well LD 2 gains CON 1 hold & 2 losses LAB 4 holds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2014 Labour lead back up to five points in YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 38% LD 11% UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 And the yellows main gainers in latest council by-elections It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs…

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Heanor West on Amber Valley (Labour Defence) Result of last election (2012): Conservative 24, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 838 (56%), Conservative 381 (26%), British National Party 272 (18%). Labour GAIN from British National Party with a majority of 457 (30%). Candidates duly nominated: Mark Burrell (Con), Celia Cox (Lab), Philip Rose (UKIP), Kate Smith (Liberal Democrats) Barham Downs on Canterbury (Conservative Defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservative 36, Liberal…

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Some good news for the LDs on gettng credit for tax changes The @IpsosMORI chart that should bring some cheer to Clegg & co pic.twitter.com/MBBSJDnDhv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 @IpsosMORI finds Osborne leading Balls as the " most capable potential chancellor" by 38 to 33. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 Clegg sees most improvement in leader ratings Nick Clegg sees the most improvement in March @IpsosMORI leader ratings pic.twitter.com/uB6oyXkwLg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13,…

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In its latest poll ICM has introduced a new measure – party like/dislike ratings where interviewees are asked to rate each main party on a seven point scale. The outline figures can be seen above. Quite where this takes us I don’t know but the fact that LAB has fewer negatives is surely a positive. The UKIP numbers fit with what we’ve seen elsewhere, particularly in the ComRes favourability ratings. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble…

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