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Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

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Congratulations and the prize to Michael Paterson The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Paterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election Here’s a full list of all the entries in winning order. Thanks again to Mark Hopkins of Nojam for providing the excellent competition widget. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

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The default assumption when parties talk about “internal polling” should be that they are lying From the Telegraph 6 days ago. UKIP "private polling" https://t.co/UmvQ4C48hc pic.twitter.com/oodjyDffh2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2015 The assumption that Oldham’s Tory voters would switch to UKIP was wrong It has often been said that of all party supporters followers of the blue team are least likely to vote tactically and this was seen again last night. The idea that a large slab of…

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Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

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LAB 62.2% (+7.5)UKIP 23.3 % (+2.7) CON 9.3% (-9.6) LD 3.7% (+0.0) GR 0.9% (-1.0) MRLP 0.5% (+0.5) via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/1nTrPjwFZC — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2015 Corbyn has done better than Cameron did in his first by election that he defended as leader. This is the result that wasn’t forecast, perhaps Jeremy Corbyn isn’t the voter repellent that the polling and the commentariat implies. Speaking this evening John Curtice has just said we expect the major opposition parties do…

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The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

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The average predictions in our prize competition Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 9, Guildford Greenbelt 3, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 2,299, 2,199, 2,104 (43%) Labour 1,113 (21%) Guildford Greenbelt 999 (19%) Liberal Democrats 900, 665 (17%) Candidates duly nominated: George Dokimakis (Lab), Andrew Gomm (Con), Kyle Greaves (UKIP), Alan Hilliar (Lib Dem), Ramsey…

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Win the definitive book of the 2015 General Election in the PB Oldham by-election competition

Win the definitive book of the 2015 General Election in the PB Oldham by-election competition

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Will the collective view of PBers once again get the outcome right? Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter vote shares down to 2 decimal points for the parties. The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error. With previous PB by-election competitions the collective view of PBers has been a pretty accurate guide to the final outcome. Let’s see if we can do it again. All the entries can be seen here. As…

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Betting on a UKIP by-election upset in the absence of hard polling

Betting on a UKIP by-election upset in the absence of hard polling

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More from Aby Tomlinson – the energetic LAB campaigner who tweeted about the responses she was getting in Oldham pic.twitter.com/idnhv91aa9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2015 Alastair Meeks gives his view Oldham West & Royton should have been a spectacularly boring by-election.  It is a previously-safe Labour seat held at the last general election by a leftwing MP with a thumping majority and an absolute majority of votes cast.  To gain it, UKIP would require a swing of 17.1%. …

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If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold

If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold

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The last things CON want are UKIP gaining traction or Corbyn being ousted A week today I’ll be at a wedding of a friend who’s been associated and helped PB for years so probably won’t be that much focused on the outcome, due overnight, of the Oldham West and Royton by-election. One thing that strikes me strongly is that it is not in the Tory interest for UKIP to win – even if that means a LAB hold. As we…

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