The first post-referendum Premiership season ends with teams from REMAIN areas dominating
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Terms of Endearment
Embed from Getty Images “Tain’t What You Do (It’s The Way That You Do It) sang Ella. “That’s what gets results.” A lesson the EU and the British government might usefully tattoo on their respective foreheads as they embark on post-Article 50 negotiations. Or try to. Nine months on from the referendum and two months since Article 50 was formally triggered, both the EU and Britain are still shouting at each other in a way familiar to divorce lawyers…
Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know
A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…
New polling suggests that CON London strongholds could be vulnerable to Stop Brexit candidates
The Survation Kensington poll in the chart above has been commissioned by a body called the Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA) to rest the feasibility of putting forward candidates in London CON strongholds where neither Labour not the Lib Dens have any chance, My understanding is that other similar seats are being looked at and hopefully we will have the data within the next few days. The standard voting question in this poll found CON 46%; LAB 29%: LD 16.6%: UKIP…
We have cross-over in YouGov’s BREXIT tracker: More now think it was wrong than right
How important will Brexit be on June 8th? The latest YouGov BREXIT tracker was published in the Times over-night and shows a move to people now saying that the referendum decision was wrong rather than right. This is a regular polling question that has been asked by YouGov in exactly the same manner since Theresa May became prime minister. Then, as the chart above shows, 4% more people thought Brexit was right than wrong. Now the “wrong” segment in leading…
PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!
On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…
Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging
It did have Brexit “right” 4% ahead Given the overwhelming importance of the Brexit negotiations in Mrs May’s stated reason for the early General Election then it is important to continue to follow how voters now view that decision last June. The one regular tracking poll on this is the YouGov question featured above and as can be seen the split has been fairly stable since the first poll to take place shortly after Theresa May entered number 10 Downing…
Some Brexit special bets
Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, my initial view is that this is market is a good way of contributing to the Paddy Power Christmas bonus fund. Whilst my inner Euro-Federalist might be tempted to back the UK to rejoin the EU at some time in the future, I’d need slightly longer odds but the biggest obstacle is that I don’t fancy tying my money up for maybe the next 33 years. The 1/10 on the UK establishing a…