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Category: BREXIT

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

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Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent. Well, that solves the Rees-Mogg resignation issue, but more generally the public seem unlikely to want to…

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While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

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Just at a time when the Tories are totally split on Brexit LAB'S s divide on anti-semitism get widerhttps://t.co/T8UkCnGdWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2018 There’s a new poll from YouGov out this morning which has Labour’s lead down to just 1% if BoJo was CON leader. This coincides with the renewed row within Corbyn’s Labour over anti-semitism following the decision of the party’s national executive committee to trim down the widely regarded definition of what anti-semitism is. This…

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A week is a long time in politics

A week is a long time in politics

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Corporeal wonders just what we’ve done to deserve our current political situation. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Then after that, and if we are being punished for some serious crimes committed in a previous life, it descends into whatever this is. I’ve been trying to crowbar an article around a Groundhog day analogy, since every week recently has seemed so depressingly familiar. Theresa May has established herself (for lack of a worse word) as a career…

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The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

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Away from Brexit for moment with some polling on what are seen as Britain’s desirable locations to live. With Channel 4 going through a process of choosing a location outside London for a new creative hub YouGov have been carrying out the polling which no doubt will prove controversial. On my Twitter feed it was observed that most of the top choices all voted remain at the referendum. You have to go down to 9th place, Nottingham to find a…

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At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll Why LAB should worry less about supporters who backed leave On general election day last year the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a huge 14,000 sample poll to find out amongst other things why people had voted as they did and to tryto understand better what had happened. The survey was similar to US exit polls where much more than voting data is collected. The BBC/Sky/ITV UK exit poll is solely about…

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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

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Betdata.io I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row. The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read. One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT…

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PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

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The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely. In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear? (And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)…

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