How much of the bounce will be seen in Brecon? It is just a week ago that TMay went to the Palace to step down as PM and for the new Tory leader, BJohnson, to be invited to succeed her. Going back over the years new prime ministers’ taking over between general elections almost always see a boost in their party’s position in the voting intention polls. This happened with with John Major in 1990, Gordon Brown in 2007 and…
The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The plummeting pound is a constant reminder of what Britain has to lose from crashing out without a deal (via @bopinion) https://t.co/A9BK8nSBrN pic.twitter.com/sQiecNk4v3 — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The markets could be what puts most pressure on Johnson After a week of almost positive coverage there’s a big cloud hanging over…
Betdata.io chart of Betfair price movements The above market was put up a few weeks ago by Betfair and has yet to be discussed on PB. In terms of the level of betting it is by far the current biggest market and one where it is quite hard to judge. On the face of it the Johnson regime appears determined to leave by October 31st and it is hard to square his position with what is a big red line…
Less than a week is, of course, far too short a time to make a comparison, especially one which will infuriate Boris fans. Who cares? They have their man as PM. They can take a bit of teasing. So here goes. Our new PM seems to be following in the precise footsteps of the old PM. On ascending to No 10, speeches about unity in the country and party. A brutal and wholesale clear-out of the old guard to create…
We now have the archetypal scenario of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Boris Johnson has now made so many “October 31 unless the backstop gets it” speeches that it’s time to believe him: if he rowed back from it now, Farage would eat him alive, and the ERG would consume the remains. The EU has said so often that they will not alter, let alone remove, the backstop that it is inconceivable that they will even contemplate it. …
Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact. In one sense he is fortunate that the parliamentary summer holiday starts today day and and MPs won’t be back until early September. It was all designed like this to prevent an early vote of confidence. One of the things about taking over as prime minister is that…
From longstanding PBer Richard Nabavi After five decades of support for the Conservatives, I have now resigned as a party member. Naturally this hasn’t been an easy decision; it has been a pleasure working with my MP Nus Ghani, and before her Charles Hendry, and helping in a small way in various constituencies to achieve six years of sound Conservative-led government under David Cameron, even if the past two years have been increasingly difficult. I shall miss the opportunities…
Boris’s election as Tory party leader and Prime Minister is the 8th occasion since WW2 when a new PM has been chosen in between general elections. On 5 of the previous 7 occasions, it was the Tories changing leader (Churchill to Eden, Eden to Macmillan, Macmillan to Douglas-Home, Thatcher to Major and Cameron to May). Only Macmillan and Major went on to win majorities at the subsequent election. On the 2 occasions when Labour made a similar change (Wilson to…