The above market was put up a few weeks ago by Betfair and has yet to be discussed on PB. In terms of the level of betting it is by far the current biggest market and one where it is quite hard to judge.
On the face of it the Johnson regime appears determined to leave by October 31st and it is hard to square his position with what is a big red line from Brussels – having an acceptable solution to the Irish border issue.
A key factor here that hasn’t been given much attention is Nancy Pelosi – Speaker of the house of Representative and arguably as powerful in the US as Trump. She has stated emphatically that anything that undermines the Northern Ireland peace agreement would mean that Congress would not approve a trade deal with the UK. She said: “We made it clear in our conversations with senior members of the Conservative Party earlier this year that there should be no return to a hard border on the island.”
Members of the US congress played a key part in the 1998 deal that ended the decades of troubles in Ireland and feel a sense of ownership.
I’m not confident backing either side in this market. I cannot see the Johnson government wanting to be remembered as the one that caused the economic disruption of no deal but it is hard to square this with current rhetoric.