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New Ipsos “Vaccine Passport” polling finds strong support across a wide range of activities

New Ipsos “Vaccine Passport” polling finds strong support across a wide range of activities

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But given the level of vaccinations are measures like these necessary The British public, according to this survey, seem to have a very strong desire to impose the most extraordinary regime on everybody as we edge out of lockdown. If all or many of these these were to be implemented we would soon realise the scale of controls on our lives. My guess is that the polling reflects the fact that being able to the things listed is so different…

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What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

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Even with a lead of 11.7% Starmer’s party falls short of a majority For some time I’ve been planning a piece on how difficult it is going to be for LAB to win a majority at the next election and overnight I got down to it. I started by using the Electoral Calculus seat predictor to try to get a broad picture of the sort of poll leads that Labour requires if it is to win an overall majority next…

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LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

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The betdata.io chart of the Betfair market tells its own story. After the vacancy in the seat was triggered punters made LAB and the Tories almost level pegging. Now that edged has out and in the latest version of the chart the Tories are 11% behind in the betting. There was a poll from Focaldata that had LAB ahead. One thing that might make this harder to call is that the pandemic means no doorstep canvassing reports of which in…

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How will Boris be judged in future polling questions like this?

How will Boris be judged in future polling questions like this?

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Above is some interesting polling from Ipsos – a question that the firm puts from time to time and no doubt in some future survey Boris will be on the list. One of the things that is key in the way prime ministers are going to be judged after their terms of office is what was happening at the time. Churchill will always be rated very highly because of his courageous decision in the first week of May 1940 to…

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A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

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No President in the post-war era has not sought re-election*. No President as old as Joe Biden has ever been elected (by a margin of several years). In 2024 one of these records will be broken, and there’s value in betting on which. Last week Joe Biden gave his first solo press conference of his tenure, and was asked whether he’ll run again. He says that “My plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation,” which shouldn’t be a…

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I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

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It has been quite an exciting 48 hours in Scotland with the announcement of the Alba Party by former First Minister Alex Salmond, we’ve seen two defections from the Westminster delegation which Ian Blackford has reacted to the defections dispassionately to rival the the way so many Conservatives handled the defection of Mark Reckless in 2014. Blackford’s comment reminded me of one Conservative’s observation at the time of the defection of Mark Reckless “I can’t say the word c**t but…

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The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

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Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…

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