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Category: Betting

Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

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GE2015 showed that betting based on single seat polls is a recipe to lose money At the end of last week I drove through the Hartlepool constituency on the way back home from my holiday in North Northumberland in the hope of seeing something that I could snap to illustrate the by-election. Alas nothing was obvious on the A19 but maybe I was concentrating on the traffic! Like David Herdson on Saturday I am far from convinced that the Tories…

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A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

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 Harold Wilson said in 1964, “The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.” By 2015 the focus was rather on what was moral about a crusade: which in many ways epitomises Labour’s problems all too neatly. In a recent thread, it was suggested that Labour needed some policies to attract attention and get voters motivated once again. My response was a Workers Charter. I suggested the following policies. Guaranteed minimum hours in every contract of employment. A…

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Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

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In spite of it all Opinium has the CON lead up 2 to 11% The most striking question in tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer is the one above testing on how many perceive Johnson to be corrupt following the events of recent weeks. It really says something about things at the moment that such a question is included in a major poll. I am sure that this sort of polling question has been asked before but I cannot recall…

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Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

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History suggests it is very hard for governments to gain by-elections Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were both campaigning in Hartlepool yesterday. That may be because they both believe the by-election there to be very close or it may be that they wish to give that impression. It really shouldn’t be close. Governments hardly ever gain by-elections from the main opposition and when they do, there are usually exceptional circumstances. Tony Blair, despite his extraordinary poll leads through most of…

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Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

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When I heard this news I stopped what I was doing and decided to take a moment to re-evaluate my entire Mayor of London betting position because of this momentous news. After period of reflection I’ve decided to keep on betting that Laurence Fox will not win the Mayor of London contest in a fortnight. This news may actually have some genuine long term implications, I wonder if this the beginning of Laurence Fox coming under aegis of Nigel Farage’s…

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Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

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In my best Game of Thrones voice: INDYREF2 IS COMING I have been staying out the year of the next Indyref betting markets because it could get messier than the blocked waste pipes in the toilets of a large and busy Indian restaurant because the terms of the bet and whether the referendum was lawful could complicate things, however that might change because of the recent story in The Sunday Times. Senior Tories, including cabinet ministers, believe this position [saying no…

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We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

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If there’s one group of people that need gelding for their own safety as much as our own are those people who hate lockdown but refuse to get vaccinated or don’t get vaccinated promptly. For some reason they don’t realise vaccine hesitancy is likely to keep us in lockdown for longer. Fortunately for us in The United Kingdom the level of vaccine hesitancy is pretty much restricted to that small number of people who think Laurence Fox is an awesome…

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Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

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Ladbrokes have a fascinating market on the Senedd seat of Cardiff West, looking at the odds above it seems a very easy Labour hold, you’d expect Mark Drakeford, the incumbent First Minister, to hold this seat thanks the excellent rollout of the vaccine he has overseen in Wales which has been seen in the polling. However the most recent poll in Wales by YouGov sees Drakeford losing his seat, which I think that might be more to do with the…

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