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Category: Betting

In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority

In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority

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What’s surprising is that this didn’t happen sooner Above is the betdata.io chart of Betfair’s next general election market and as can be seen for the first time the Tories are above a 50% chance to win a majority. Given the way that Labour and its leader have been struggling of late then the real surprise is that it has taken until now for the betting milestone to be reached. Currently the Tories and Johnson are continuing to benefit from…

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What gerrymandering looks like in Texas

What gerrymandering looks like in Texas

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The map of a single US congressional district The map says it all – just how the boundaries of congressional districts can be so created so they maximise the benefit for one party – in this case the Republicans The boundaries are drawn by the Republican contolled state governemnt.

With everything going so well for BoJo he could be tempted to go for an early election

With everything going so well for BoJo he could be tempted to go for an early election

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As can be seen from the betdata.io betting chart there has been something of a move to an earlier election. This is due to take place in 2024 at the latest and it could just be that Johnson might at any time cash in his popularity and go to the country earlier. I am not convinced because we all know what happened to TMay in 2017. She had an enormous margin in the polls sonewhat in excess of what Johnson’s…

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The King of the North succeeding Starmer? More like The King of Wishful Thinking

The King of the North succeeding Starmer? More like The King of Wishful Thinking

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At the time of writing Andy Burnham is the 4/1 favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader, he clearly wants the job, last night in an interview with The Observer he said ‘Labour’s red wall seats would have been safer under me [Andy Burnham]’ and ‘he would run for the leadership again after the next general election if he had widespread support’. He’s clearly on manoeuvres but I think he’s someone you shouldn’t be backing but laying in…

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Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party

Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party

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Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens. Across the country, the thin Green tide advanced. Highlights included:– An increase in MSPs and pushing the Lib Dems into a clear fifth in Scotland;– Finishing fourth in Wales by vote – though no MSs, unlike the Lib Dems, who polled fewer votes;–…

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One in nine of those younger than 25 on the YouGov panel don’t even know who Tony Blair was

One in nine of those younger than 25 on the YouGov panel don’t even know who Tony Blair was

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YouGov has just put out the above polling on Keir Starmer and seeks to rate him against Corbyn, Tony Blair and the Mayor of Greater Manchester and failed 2015 LAB leadership contender, Andy Burnham. Thus the latter was in the news a bit last weekend after his re-election in Manchester but a total of 38% either didn’t have a view or didn’t know who he was. I generally dislike this sort of polling because the level of don’t knows is…

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Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

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Could the 40 year old Green nominee win September’s election? Finland has one. New Zealand has one. Is Germany about to join the list of countries with young, dynamic female premiers breathing new life into democratic politics? Forty-year old Annalena Baerbock co-leads the German Green Party and if recent polls are correct then her party is on course for a stunning performance in the autumn federal elections. A young mother from Lower Saxony, she is said to be tough and…

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