The above data splits from the latest Opinium approval ratings of the PM show just how Brexit continues to totally dominate views of Johnson. Very helpfully Opinium produces a regular split in their data tables separating out by social class linked to Brexit vote. The above from the latest poll is, I think, the worst it has been for the PM from both ABC1 and C2DE Remainers. Net ratings of minus 43 and 49 are very poor particularly as we…
The last decade and a half of German politics have been the story of one person. Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU/CSU Union, has been as dominant as any figure can be in a PR system. A very narrow victory in 2005 has been followed by comfortable wins in 2009, 2013 (where she came just 5 seats short of a majority!), and 2017. But after 16 years in office she is handing over before new elections on 26 September, and…
By my reckoning Starmer’s LAB needs to gain in excess of 123 seats at the next election in order to secure a majority. The table from above from the excellent Election Polling site lists some of the seats that the party taking in order to achieve power. I’ve selected the segment from target seat 113 because that gets us into the area of potential gains that Starmer’s party needs to be making if there is any chance of securing a…
Even though 78 year old Biden has only been in office since January the speculation is starting to build around 2024. Is Biden, as some reports suggest, going to seek re-election in three years’ time when he will be in his early 80s. The age factor is important because he is already the oldest president in US history and it is really quite hard to see how someone of such advanced years could handle the physical and mental challenges of…
Inevitably there is now a market up on the next Foreign Secretary and this market from Smarkets is worth a look (even if there’s next to no liquidity in it.) I do not expect Dominic Raab to be an ex Foreign Secretary shortly because if there’s one thing Boris Johnson is tolerant of it is incompetent ministers, in other eras perpetual incompetence and bullying would have seen the likes of Gavin Williamson and Priti Patel sacked long ago so Raab…
Apparently this was with the approval of the PM Another good piece of reporting by Tim Shipman which will put pressure on Raab and raise questions about his boss. Read the full account linked to above.
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will hold terrible, often fatal, consequences for many people. Interpreters, who assisted Western forces. Journalists, who provided information to their people. Women and girls, regardless of their actions. But, from a political betting perspective, the most notable consequence is a far less important one: It’s been an awful week for Joe Biden. Smarkets allow us to bet on Joe Biden’s approval rating on his one year anniversary (of inauguration, not election). FiveThirtyEight keeps a weighted…