We have the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday, in 2021 the SNP polled 46.2% in this constituency but things are different today with the surge of Reform and whilst the SNP lead in the polls it isn’t impressive as it was in 2021. That said I think the value might be the 16/1 on them polling between 45% and 50% with Ladbrokes because they are appealing for tactical votes and it might work this time against a Farage…
This polling reminds me why I am glad I didn’t become a politician. The public want champagne and caviar but want to pay Tesco meal deal prices. TSE
TSE
Series introduction This is the first in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for each of the 7 main Great Britain parties in turn. Before looking at the situation for Labour in detail, we will review what happened in the 2024 election UNS is dead In recent elections, we have seen Scotland having very different elections than the rest of the UK. In 2024, this widened with a large divergence in different areas of England as well, which…
There are two consistent themes to the polls for as long as I have been following them is that the polls overestimate how many people will actually vote in UK general election and that non-voters do not turn out to vote in the levels they say they will. The only two times in UK elections when that has hasn’t been the case has been the Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit referendum. So my initial thought was to think Reform’s…
I suspect a lot of attention will be on how support from independence increases if Farage becomes Prime Minister but we saw similar polling prior to Brexit and if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister but hypothetical polling has shown in the past it is regularly utterly bobbins. I suspect the next Scottish independence referendum is likely to be at least a decade away. As for the next Holyrood election this could be a bit of a mess, even though the…
June will see the King’s Birthday honours (even though his birthday is in November) and new peers will be created. Unless Starmer breaks the depressing precedent, new peers will include major party donors, loyal backbenchers and party officials, and other people that party leaders like. A Guardian columnist will call for an elected second chamber, which would mean yet more politicians. Some new peers will be good: respected former Cabinet Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, think tank bosses or policy-oriented academics. But…
33% of the public scare me, this polling is inspired by Justin Trudeau’s footwear faux pas. Only David Tennant’s Doctor looks good wearing trainers with a suit. TSE