Labour are starting to own the economy
The final chart from YouGov might mean Labour will lose their defence of blaming the Tories for the state of the economy. TSE
A new public funding model
With UK government borrowing at an estimated £120 billion a year it is clear that tax-and-spend will no longer work in terms of investing in order to generate growth. The Covid pandemic saw governments across the globe borrow through Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to finance the extraordinary situation. The UK government borrowed some £400 billion in order to get through the crisis mostly via QE. Very little of that money was invested for the long-term. Most went on furlough…
The Tory irrelevance continues
I have said for a while that the biggest threat for the Tories is that the narrative for the next election is a fight between Labour and Reform, this polling reinforces that. If Kemi Badenoch wants to become Prime Minister it is a narrative she needs to destroy and reshape. TSE
This polling may trigger some people
I have always been quite dismissive of people when it comes to the Ship of Theseus philosophical question who say it is the same ship. Using the broom question I cannot help but roll my eyes at 29% of the public. TSE
Reeves, nearly as bad as Covid and Truss & Kwarteng but Lab still continue to lead on the economy
I find this polling from Ipsos intriguing. The précis of the findings is the pubic think Starmer & Reeves are, economically, nearly as bad the pandemic and the Truss/Kwarteng experience yet Labour are still the most trusted to manage the economy but that score is 23% which is like being the most beautiful turkey at the farm in the run up to Christmas. The first chart shows that when governments get ratings this bad they seldom go on and win…
Wow, Lib Dem Chief Whip takes action to stop a defection to Lab in The Commons
TSE
Ed Miliband is impressing a key demographic
I know it is gauche to point out that you are right but seeing this findings from Survation/Labour List gives me great satisfaction. In the past few months I have written I thought the current betting favourite, Wes Streeting, is a lay in the next Labour leader market whilst I wrote that Ed Miliband was value at 100/1 to succeed Sir Keir Starmer so seeing Miliband top of this polling and seeing Streeting towards the bottom confirms my strategy. I…
Should we start adding a Trump effect to the polls and betting strategies?
Last November I wrote a piece pointing out the Conservatives were the 1/10 favourites to win the 2025 Canadian election. Whilst I was expecting some swingback I wasn’t expecting this level of movement but thanks to the Ayrshire hotelier has changed things. When it comes elections and the betting therein we might have to factor things like this. Imagine Sir Keir Starmer calls an election for late 2028 which Reform are set to win and then Trump intervenes and sees…