As time goes by
TSE
A Bridget too far?
A lot of focus will be on Andy Burnham outpolling Sir Keir Starmer in a hypothetical leadership contest but this polling is moot given Andy Burnham isn’t an MP, it will be difficult for him to become an MP, and the polling was taken before his recent implosion. My main focus is on what I think is the value in backing Bridget Phillipson to win the deputy leadership given YouGov’s track record in leadership contests, at 8s when she’s only…
These are the figures of a tired ten year old government
TSE
Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling
Across three different pollsters we could soon the Tories in fifth place, which I think would trigger problems for Kemi Badenoch as the party’s MPs and donors just wouldn’t countenance it. If the remaining Tory voters start to think their vote will be wasted and the party sinks lower. TSE
Will this impact Reform’s chances in the Senedd?
‘Vote Reform get Putin’ might be a great slogan for the opponents of Reform in Wales but does Nigel Farage have the skill to deal with this and will the voters care? TSE
Andy Burnham’s passed from rising hope to Liz Truss without any intervening period whatsoever
I thought Burnham’s intervention yesterday would backfire and there’s certainly been that as we can see with Labour MP Neil Coyle’s tweet and Number 10 comparing Andy Burnham to Liz Truss. TSE
If there were an election tomorrow the Tories would be banjaxed
I would caution about reading too much into MRPs this far from an election, when the original MRP was published in 2017 it was stated by the academics behind it that MRPs become less accurate the further they are away from an election and become more reliable in the six to nine months before the election. As I noted in the previous thread, tactical voting against Reform could push them well away from a majority. TSE
Tactical voting may not be Farage’s friend
One of the uncertainties about the next election is how tactical voting will play out, fortunately there is some analysis out there and should worry Farage. The Times reports Electoral Calculus compared the number of projected seats if everyone voted with their primary voting intention, with the number of projected seats if tactical voting were taken into account. Under tactical voting Labour would gain 42 seats on its tally from people voting with their primary intention, taking its estimated total…