Tipping point?
TSE
So it begins. The elephant in the 2028 presidential election room
One of the reasons many punters, myself included, are reluctant to bet heavily, or bet at all on the 2028 Republican nomination and/or the 2028 presidential election is that Donald Trump may try and run for a third term. Normally the bar for a change to the American constitution is quite high, however given with a compliant majority on the Supreme Court, who will go down in infamy like the Taney, court then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the…
PB Predictions Competition 2025
It’s time to get your entries in for the 2025 PB Predictions Competition if you haven’t already. All entries must be in by midnight on Friday 31st January! To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025, to this or whichever thread is currently open. If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me collate entries. Alternatively you can PM me your entries (but…
Let’s talk about clouds
Looking at these word clouds I know the attention of most people will be drawn to the prominence of Nigel Farage but for me the most striking thing is that you have to squint and use a magnifying glass to find Kemi Badenoch’s name on the January 2025 word cloud. For those unfamiliar with word clouds, the larger the person’s name on the word cloud the more people support that person. As a lifelong Conservative I have to admit I…
The Trump dynasty
My expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor and I think he’ll try and it keep within the family which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.,’s presidential chances. As we can see in the Tweet above there’s polling that’s pretty good for Donald Trump, Jr. so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election. TSE
Kemi Badenoch is 100% right on this
It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and with Liz Truss he has struck gold. Her Lady Jane Greyesque tenure as PM was like Black Wednesday, something the opponents of the Tories will use for years to show the Tories are unfit to run a whelk stall let alone a government. The difference between then and now is that after his election defeat Sir John Major wasn’t popping up in the media blaming everything from…
What’s this polling going to look like by the end of Trump’s second term?
Being a relentless optimist if Trump effectively ends NATO and we see the return to Smoot-Hawley then I suspect these figures will move sharply towards the EU. Whilst I don’t think that means rejoining the EU but I do think rejoining the Single Market and all that resultant growth will be very attractive to voters. TSE
Breaking her word
Picture: Coffin from the walls of Kirstall Abbey It is not often we knowingly get to watch the start of a scandal unfold in real time. But this is what’s happening with the Assisted Dying Bill. This is a serious societal change with huge implications for our approach to death, suicide, illness, palliative care, the doctor-patient relationship, society’s taboo against killing and much else. Whatever your views on the substance, something as important and sensitive as this needs the fullest…