PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves. At GE2017 on the Saturday after the Tory manifesto launch I “sold” CON seats at 393. They ended up with 318 MPs and my profit…
Could losing an election be the best thing to happen to the 25/1 shot? These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would…
But who’s benefiting? All the signs are that turnout is going to reach almost presidential election levels in the US midterm elections that take place on Tuesday November 6th. In many states it is possible to vote early and quite a number started the process on Tuesday with two weeks to go. Almost across the board the numbers who are availing themselves of this facility are at levels nearing, or in some cases topping. the recorded numbers casting their ballots…
The Dems lead in generic poll but will that be enough? In 2016 there were two elections which had global reverberations – Brexit and, of course, the election of Donald Trump. Both were close, both were seen as defeats for the liberal establishment and in both those on the losing side would dearly love to see the outcomes thwarted in some way. In the US Midterm election a week on Tuesday those opposed to Trump would dearly like to “clip…
Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…
Even though the next US presidential election is more than two years away potential contenders, particularly on the Democratic side, are already going through the machinations of preparing for a run – first for the party nomination then for the Presidency itself. The big surprise of the 2016 race was how successful Vermont Senator and socialist, Bernie Sanders, was in the fight for the Democratic nomination giving Hillary Clinton much harder fight than perhaps she had been expecting. The signs…
One of the things that the Elizabeth Warren DNA argument has highlighted is how successful Trump is at undermining anybody who is an opponent by the use of well thought out nicknames. These encapsulate the main negative and he uses the attack time and time again. Just remember from the 2016 nomination and election when we had,”Little Marco” , “Low energy” Bush, “Lying Ted” , and, of course, “Crooked Hillary”. Those all in their own way contributed to Trump’s victory….
Politco is reporting that West Virginia will become the first state in the US where it will be possible to vote by smartphone in the crucial election on November 6th. An app has been created that will allow hundreds of overseas residents, members of the military stationed abroad and others to cast their ballots remotely. It is being emphasised that the app will rely on blockchain, which is the same technology technology that underpins Bitcoin. Politico reports that that this…