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Category: America

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

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His mental health is too difficult to assess and there are other, better routes When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along. Trump’s administration has been a revolving door of appointments amid laudatory comments, followed by resignations and sackings and associated Trumpian bad-mouthing of his former colleagues. In around three years, Trump has…

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The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

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Half of Americans now want him out There’s been another series of anguished Tweets from the incumbent of the White House following the latest impeachment polling commissioned by the channel that used to be his greatest supporter – Fox News. This latest survey is in line with other recent polls and there’s little doubt that voters are turning against him. Meanwhile another great supporter from the past, Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report which acts as a hard right news…

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Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

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Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have  shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys. She has been helped by the illness of Bernie Sanders who might have to pull out of…

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How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

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A guest slot from Fishing Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that the Democrats would be able to find an excuse to impeach Trump if they gained control of the House in 2018 for that reason, 2019 would be the peak year of danger for Trump in this respect but I expected that the Senate would acquit, because of its likely Republican majority following the Midterms. Given…

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With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

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While we have been mostly focused on the high octane politics currently in the UK there’ve been big developments in the US which raise questions over whether Donald Trump will win a second term in November 2020. Earlier in the week the Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi started the impeachment process in the House of Representatives. As well as everything else what is driving this is what the President said to the PM of Ukraine in an effort to get what…

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After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chance for the nomination

After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chance for the nomination

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Chart Betdata.io The biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment is on the WH2020 Democratic nomination where poll after poll, national and state, are seeing Elizabeth Warren getting closer to Biden and in some case being in first place As a general rule betting at these odds so far out seems crazy. The nomination won’t be sorted out till July next so there’s a long time to wait for settlement. Also anything could happen. Warren’s soaring position…

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Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time

Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time

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She’s now 38% on Betfair for the nomination Those who have followed American politics for some time will be aware that Anne Selzer polls for the Des Moines register have over the decades built up a strong reputation for accuracy in polling the Iowa Caucuses. The issue here is ensuring that samples are made up of voters who will actually participate – attending a meeting in their precinct at 7pm on the stated day. The Selzer approach seem to get…

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New Democrat nominee polling finds Warren’s generates the most enthusiasm

New Democrat nominee polling finds Warren’s generates the most enthusiasm

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    In general almost all the Democratic nominee polling that we’ve seen this year has had 76 year old Joe Biden in the lead. This has been a been underpinned by the findings that he’s seen as the one most likely to beat Trump.  Even so it is being suggested that his position is not as strong as it might appear. The growing doubts about the former VP are basically because of ongoing gaffes, his age and little things…

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