The biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment is on the WH2020 Democratic nomination where poll after poll, national and state, are seeing Elizabeth Warren getting closer to Biden and in some case being in first place
As a general rule betting at these odds so far out seems crazy. The nomination won’t be sorted out till July next so there’s a long time to wait for settlement. Also anything could happen.
Warren’s soaring position reminds me of Howard Dean at 2004 who was odds on for the nomination until the results from Iowa – the first state to decide came in.
The hardest question for a Warren sceptic is if not her then who? That is far from clear. Sanders and Biden are just too old and none of the other contenders is making an impression.