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Kamala Harris edging down in the Dem VP betting with Susan Rice continuing to advance

Kamala Harris edging down in the Dem VP betting with Susan Rice continuing to advance

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Is Joe really going to choose the woman who attacked him? With Joe Biden expected to announce his VP choice within the next fortnight there’s been a lot of movement on the Betfair market where Kamala Harris has edged downwards from a 60%+ chance to a 37% one. A big driver is the money now going on Susan Rice who is now rated on the markets as having a 25% chance. For those wanting more detail on what is currently…

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Pence for Republican VP nominee – what are the chances that he won’t be?

Pence for Republican VP nominee – what are the chances that he won’t be?

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While there’s been a lot of betting activity on Biden’s VP pick (£1.2m so far matched on Betfair) there’s been much less activity on Mike Pence being on the Republican ticket (just £12k) once again in November. He’s currently at 1.11/1.16 on Betfair which might be value for the lay. There are a couple of ways that he’s not in the VP slot. First Trump could pull out of the race and there have been some suggestions that this might…

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Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

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Looking at the changes in the US electorate There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to make the Presidential election a referendum on ‘woke’, on the topping of statues, and on the Democratic party being in hock to a far left faction. And recent did gift him some prize examples, the “awkward squad” of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan were all elected to the House…

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WH2020 looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

WH2020 looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

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With less than 4 months to go until the presidential election the signs are that this will be the biggest political betting event of all time. Probably because of the way that Trump is viewed with extremes on both sides this contest is getting more attention from punters than previous reces. So far on the Betfair exchange alone getting on for more than £90m has been matched. Heaven knows what this will be by November 2nd. The biggest market is,…

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How Bernie Sanders complicates the betting on November’s US Senate elections

How Bernie Sanders complicates the betting on November’s US Senate elections

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He may have stood the for Democratic WH2020 nomination but he’s not part of the party in the US Senate The other really big election taking place in the United States on November 2nd is for the US Senate where currently the Republicans have 53 of the 100 seats. If indeed Trump is ousted on that day the Democratic victory will only be really meaningful if the party takes the Senate as well. This is going to be far from…

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One of the reasons I’m not entirely confident on calling the Presidential election, because the people in this video have the vote

One of the reasons I’m not entirely confident on calling the Presidential election, because the people in this video have the vote

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Like David Herdson I’m leaning towards thinking November’s Presidential election will be a comfortable Biden win, certainly that’s what the polling and Trump’s demeanour indicates, a lot of this has been driven by Covid-19 and the administration’s handling of it. An American friend sent me this video of anti-maskers in Florida losing their poop over being forced to wear masks. My friend pointed out to me that to plenty of Americans Covid-19 isn’t really something to worry about. These are…

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Harris retains her strong favourite position in the Democratic VP betting with Susan Rice now second favourite

Harris retains her strong favourite position in the Democratic VP betting with Susan Rice now second favourite

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I have a very long history of always losing money on the vice presidential choices in American election campaigns. This is not something that is decided by primaries or elections of some form but is the personal choice of the presumptive nominee in this case Joe Biden. I’ve moved around so much in the betting on this that I have now cashed out on Betfair making a small profit whatever happens. I have another bet on Susan Rice at Ladbrokes…

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Washington DC – the capital city where in democratic terms its residents are second class citizens

Washington DC – the capital city where in democratic terms its residents are second class citizens

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Just imagine what would happen if those people who resided in the City of Westminster were not allowed to have an MP. It would be decidedly odd and very hard to justify on democratic terms and no doubt the residents there would rightly feel angry. Well that is the situation that exists for the 0.75m people whose home is in Washington DC. Clearly it is understandable that those who live in the US capitol feel aggrieved by this and why…

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