TSE – Page 429 – politicalbetting.com

Henry G Manson asks: Can Cameron win ethnic minority votes with candidates alone?

28/12/2012 TSE Comments 0 Comment

According to reports yesterday the Conservative Party wants to increase its efforts to woo ethnic voters ahead of the election. This, alongside gay marriage, appears to be the second lesson George Osborne took from the recent US Presidential election. The Independent understands the initial aim seems to be to increase the number of minority parliamentary candidates. Conservatives currently have 11 MPs from an ethnic minority background compared to Labour who have 13. The Liberal Democrats, somewhat incredibly, have zero. It…

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ICM: 51% would vote to leave the EU

27/12/2012 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As we are a few days away from theÂ fortieth anniversary of The United Kingdom joining the EU, theÂ Guardian has some polling by ICMÂ on the EU. The public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll that finds 51% of respondents would vote to take Britain out of the EU, against just 40% who say they would vote to stay in.Â As the Guardian notes This marks a turnaround from similar polls conducted in the earliest years of…

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Betting On What May Happen In Politics In 2013

27/12/2012 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have some markets on some events that may occur in 2013. Being an economicÂ optimist, I’ve backed the UK to lose its AAA credit rating and interest rates to go up (based largely on this article) I’m also backing Andrew Mitchell and Chris Huhne to be back in cabinet and Silvio Berlusconi to be Italian PM. Which ones will you be backing? 4/7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â UK To Lose Triple-A Credit Rating (5/4 Not To) 1/1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3p Increase In Fuel Duty In…

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Lord Ashcroft: The UKIP threat is not about Europe

18/12/2012 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Following on fromÂ last night’s phone pollsÂ from Populus and ComRes which showed UKIP Â vote share increasing with the phone pollsters, Lord Ashcroft hasÂ publishedÂ some polling on UKIP, from which we learn [The] research finds that 12% of those who voted Tory in 2010 now say they would vote UKIP in an election tomorrow. Half of all those who would consider voting UKIP supported the Conservatives at the last election. The graphic below shows which of the following issues is the most important…

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ComRes and Populus Phone Polls out

17/12/2012 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Two new phone polls are out, and they are mirroring the online pollsters which see UKIP increasing. Populus for the Times Conservatives 29 (minus 6) Labour 40 (no change) Lib Dems 11 (plus 2) UKIP 10 (plus 6) It also said that 12 per cent of those who voted Tory in 2010 now say they would support UKIP, and UKIP are up 8% in a year with Populus. UKIP is up six points and the Tories down six points, although…

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