Survation have carried out a poll for Sky News, they asked: “Do you think the UK should remain a member of the EU?” The changes are from the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday in January (note the question then was slightly different to the question asked in the Sky News Poll), as we can see this represents a 6.5% swing in favour of those wishing for the UK to remain in the EU since January. I found this bit…
There’s a new TNS – BMRB poll out. It will make for grim reading for the Blues, all the other parties will be delighted. Labour haven’t slipped, the Yellows have nearly seen their support up by nearly 50% from 7% to 10%, UKIP up 1% and nearly polling double the Lib Dems score. TNS BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,190 people between 30th May and 3rd June 2013. Putting these figures through electoral calculus, shows a Labour a majority…
With all the recent weeks discussions about David Cameron’s leadership ending this parliament, the one thing that has crossed my mind is that if David Cameron is replaced as Tory Leader during this parliament, can the party, the coalition and the country cope with a long drawn out leadership contest? The 2001 Tory Leadership election lasted just over three months, from William Hague’s resignation on June the 8th, to IDS being declared the winner on September the 13th and The…
There’s a piece by Benedict Brogan in this morning’s Telegraph about Michael Gove, where he writes about Michael Gove as a possible contender to replace David Cameron. Earlier on this year he became the first Tory Cabinet minister to cross the rubicon, and announce he’d vote to leave the EU, something that will go down with some members of the Tory party, who ultimately have the final say on the Tory leadership. As also Benedict Brogan notes, his recent attack…
Voters for the last few years have said the economy is the most important issue facing Britain. Last night we had a survation poll for Labourlist which shows That nearly half of all voters (46.8%) believe that Labour “cannot be trusted with the economyâ€. Less than one-third (30.1%) believe that Labour can be trusted with the nation’s finances. There is further evidence that Labour isn’t trusted with the economy, as there is polling that shows that a plurality blame Labour…
This article was started on the Friday after the local elections (May 10th 2013) and was prompted by a discussion on the BBC Northern Ireland edition of the Sunday Politics the previous weekend about the chances of a UKIP breakthrough in the Assembly. UKIP (the United Kingdom Independence Party) appear to have broken through into the political mainstream following the local elections last week and yet at the same time one thing appears clear, they are not as United Kingdom…
There’s a new survation poll out, the fieldwork was the 30th of May. Whilst the changes are sub margin of error, the 2% gap between the Tories and UKIP that existed in the last two Survation polls has now become a 5% gap, which will be a relief to the Conservatives, but this another poll showing UKIP in the 20s. Labour will be delighted that they maintain their significant lead. The supplementaries on Cameron’s holiday and Cameron’s abilities to…
Now that the Opinium poll for the Observer  and the The YouGov for the Sunday Times have both been published, all the online polls for May have been published, here’s the online polling average, to go with the phone pollster analysis I did earlier on in the week. A couple of methodology notes 1) I’ve limited to one poll per pollster per month, if the pollster has conducted more than one poll during a month, I have used the last…