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The Final YouGov poll on Euros

The Final YouGov poll on Euros

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EXCL: YouGov/Sun projection – UKIP to make history and win tmrw's Euro vote: UKIP 27%, Lab 26% http://t.co/BxDIr0lDej pic.twitter.com/hsgK5eLfgo — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 21, 2014   Update the Sun Graphic is incorrect, The Greens are on 10% ahead of the Lib Dems who are on 9% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 21, 2014 Meanwhile The Guardian have an interesting leak. An internal Liberal Democrat document reveals that the party is braced for a complete wipeout in the…

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Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

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Survation have conducted a poll for the Daily Mirror, the fieldwork was yesterday and today, they polled 1,106 respondents. As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote. (So this is what the…

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Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

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Predicting an election when the three top parties could well end up within three or four points of one and other and in any order of gold, silver and bronze is likely a fool’s errand. But finding value in the betting market before Thursday isn’t. There’s big reasons for Labour to rightfully worry about UKIP this Thursday (the continued erosion of its blue collar base, UKIP in-roads on Labour-identifying non-voters etc, the immigration issue etc). But there’s also small things…

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ComRes phone poll and ComRes and YouGov Euros polls all out

ComRes phone poll and ComRes and YouGov Euros polls all out

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In recent days and especially today, it feels like a General Election campaign with a phalanx of polls, and it is hard to work out what the polls mean with polls with markedly different results. First Up, we have the ComRes phone poll for the Independent. ComRes/Independent Westminster (phone) poll Lab 35% (-1) Con 30% (-) UKIP 14% (+2) LD 8% (-1) Others 13% (-) http://t.co/LY90t5vkJt — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) May 19, 2014   Well also have a ComRes online…

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The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

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Labour takes a 6 point lead with Lord Ashcroft’s polling.   Lord Ashcroft poll has published his second weekly phone poll on Westminster VI and it great news for the Red team As the good Lord himself says wisely This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on? Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those…

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Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

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This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012. The two most interesting phenomenon of this period of Conservatives ahead in the polling is i) That is happening in the run-up to the last set of elections before next year’s General Election.  ii) The Conservatives are only 1 to 3 % down on their General election score,…

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Nighthhawks is now open

Nighthhawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) There’s still time to win, if Miliband can stop the rot As Labour’s poll…

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The Eurovision thread

The Eurovision thread

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Tomorrow sees the annual European music extravaganza that is Eurovision, but whom to back and lay? In the first semi-final we saw the Russian entry get booed, some say for a mixture of Russia’s contretemps in Ukraine and Russia’s approach to the LGBT community. Given the demographics of Eurovision watchers and voters, that may not help Russia, so I’m laying Russia. YouGov conducted some polling on this, and they found  55% think Russia will do worse at Eurovision because of…

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