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Author: TSE

Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

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Wednesday's i front page – Trust me to protect the NHS, says Cameron #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/nQylBrzFH1 — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 30, 2014 As the focus is on a defector, Dave is set to make the NHS the centre piece of the election. Coupled with the seven day a week GP promise announced yesterday, it is clear what the Tories will be focussing upon. I suspect the NHS will form a key part of the election battle. It will be…

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UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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The fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive, so some of it was conducted during Mark Reckless’ defection and Brooks Newmark’s resignation. There’ll probably be relief at Tory HQ, given that and the the polling was conducted in the aftermath of the Labour conference that they are up 1% and not down a significant amount. As with most other pollsters, there’s been no bounce for Labour post their conference. As ever, conference polling can be erratic, and we should wait until…

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Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

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Since the defection of Mark Reckless to UKIP, I’ve not been surprised at the opprobrium heaped at Mark Reckless from the Tories, mostly because of his timing and his assurances that he wouldn’t defect. Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: “I can’t say the word c**t but he’s a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse.” — Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) September 28, 2014 The above tweet, shows the depth of the anger, the thing that…

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Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

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Told by a normally reliable source another Tory UKIP defection is imminent. Stand by your beds. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014 Just taken the 33/1 and 20/1 on Davies and Henderson on the next Tory MP to defect pic.twitter.com/JxE6APLnTd — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 29, 2014 TSE Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014

Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

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The next election result is likely to be a strange one, as the following Ipsos-Mori tweet alludes to No gov increase in vote share since 1955, no opposition in office after 1 term out since 1931, no 2 hung parliaments in a row since 1910… — Ipsos MORI (@IpsosMORI) September 22, 2014 (On a follow up tweet they noted that it should read no majority government, Wilson’s calling of a swift 2nd election in 1974 produced a small uptick for…

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New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

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There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5% The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above….

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