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Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

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The Thanet ComRes poll Farage censored via @suttonnick http://t.co/J2ax7nThki pic.twitter.com/bGXW0g0Z9N — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 4, 2015 Last night The Mail on Sunday reported Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election. The secret Ukip-commissioned poll, leaked to The Mail on Sunday, shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is…

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Tomorrow night is Nigel Farage’s big opportunity

Tomorrow night is Nigel Farage’s big opportunity

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Farage’s ratings for a third party leader are pretty poor With the seven way debate upon us shortly, I was trying to see the circumstances that led to the Cleggasm in April 2010. Using the Ipsos-Mori leader satisfaction ratings as a proxy,  we can see how Nigel Farage’s net ratings compare to Clegg in March 2010. Then in April 2010 the public for a short time, ended up liking someone they already liked a bit more. Given that that Farage…

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The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

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Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015 Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead. What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement…

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And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

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The winner of tonight's debate was #BattleForNumber10 pic.twitter.com/fBGvcyNiF7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2015 Jeremy Paxman proved why he’s the best in the business. But I do wonder if Ed Miliband’s “Hell Yeah”when Paxman asked him if he was “tough enough to deal with the likes of Putin” maybe the most memorable event from the whole debates and interviews. Whether it is for good or ill, we will soon find out. Though Paxman’s off mic comment at the end to…

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Let the debates begin

Let the debates begin

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  Well the interviews at least. You can watch the event live by clicking the youtube video below.   I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday. Will one or both of them have a surprise in store? I expect the other…

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By election preview 26th of March 2015

By election preview 26th of March 2015

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Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4, Conservatives 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected Scottish National Party: Brown 910 E, Walker 349, Grant 941 E (42%) Labour: Craik 708 E, Campbell 1,424 E (41%) Independents: Robertson 147, Taylor 192 (7%) Scottish Pensioners Party: Dawson 271 (5%) Conservative:…

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ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

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Another poll without a budget boost for the Tories As we’ve seen with some other pollsters, the big two are increasing their share of the vote, and UKIP falling back, as ComRes notes This represents the highest combined two-party vote share since September 2013. Individually, it is Labour’s highest share for six months and the Conservatives’ highest since November 2012. UKIP sees its vote share fall three points to 10%, the lowest in a ComRes phone poll in more than…

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The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget

The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget

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Given the polling before the budget, the Tories might feel disappointed that the budget didn’t get more of a thumbs up from the electorate, there’s probably only one or two game changers left for the Tories, one of them is the debates, but according to reports, Ed has been preparing for a while, Dave has not. The full YouGov data tables are available here. TSE