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The first of tonight’s three polls has the Tories still ahead but their lead falls from four to one

The first of tonight’s three polls has the Tories still ahead but their lead falls from four to one

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Actually that @OpiniumResearch poll is Con 34 (-2) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 13 (nc) Greens 6 (+1) pic.twitter.com/Tpcy1ObelP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 25, 2015 Latest @OpiniumResearch leader ratings pic.twitter.com/xE5Cx4YzyU — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 25, 2015 The fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday inclusive. Tonight I’m expecting Survation and YouGov polls as well, this thread will be updated as they come in. TSE #yougov #sundaytimes Labour maintain 2 point lead with 10 days to go. Labour 34, Con 32, ukip…

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Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

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The latest @May2015NS forecast/predictions of the great and the good. pic.twitter.com/ZoYx4GTDzP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015 Is a Grand Coalition the only viable government after the election? Whilst fans of Poirot, TinTin, and the D’Hondt electoral voting system might seem some advantages of the UK becoming more like Belgium, I’m coming to the conclusion that we might not have a viable government possible, particularly if the SNP surge translates into the seat numbers the recent Scottish polling implies. In…

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Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

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Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats — Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015 The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate. This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might…

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Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

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The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out. The average swing in these seats is around 3.5%, which contrasts to the 2% found in last week’s batch of marginal polling. But the swing isn’t uniform in these seats, ranging from a 7.5% Con to Lab swing in Crewe & Nantwich and a 3.5% Lab to Con swing in North East Somerset. The Tories might be happy that the Lab gains are within the margin of error. UKIP might…

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It is looking like being 1992 all over again

It is looking like being 1992 all over again

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The battle for the White House in 2016 looks like being a repeat of 1992 Sky News say Hillary Clinton is today expected to confirm she is running for the Democratic nomination to be the president of the US, effectively firing the starting gun on the 2016 election campaign. The former Secretary of State and First Lady has long been the runaway favourite to be the party’s candidate for the election next November. It is expected she will make the…

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For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

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Mark Reckless on course to lose his seat accordingly to a private poll. http://t.co/FjxsfMBpbj pic.twitter.com/84OU8SbPL4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 12, 2015 Will Reckless’ decision to defect turn out to be a reckless one? This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election. It does fit in with the wider political narrative, such as last night’s Opinium, UKIP hitting a low that they…

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Policies not leadership will win this election

Policies not leadership will win this election

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Front page of the Mail on Sunday with the Tory policy announcement on IHT pic.twitter.com/bTbs0LobRj — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015 Front page of the Independent on Sunday with the Lab policy announcement on tax avoidance pic.twitter.com/JYR3DKJPCt — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015   Last night saw the the emergence of a major policy announcement by both the Tories and Labour, these can be seen as the appetising hors-d’oeuvre before the main course that is the manifesto launches in the…

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Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

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Video of Vince Cable’s most memorable moment from when he was the acting Lib Dem Leader in 2007 Today’s Sunday Times reports VINCE CABLE, the business secretary, is being tipped by senior Liberal Democrats as the party’s next leader if Nick Clegg loses his seat or resigns after a poor result in the general election. Cable, 71, who had all but ruled himself out of any leadership contest, is now being promoted by senior Lib Dems as a “safe pair…

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