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A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

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Latest @TNS_UK poll finds 53% of Scots would vote for Independence and 47% would vote to remain in the UK http://t.co/NJOVAaXozq — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 9, 2015 This will be great news for supporters of Scottish Nationalism, though on the Holyrood voting intention questions the SNP see their lead slip but they still retain formidable leads in both categories. In a poll of 1023 adults over 16 in Scotland, 58% of those who expressed a preference would back the SNP in…

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The next Shadow Chancellor betting

The next Shadow Chancellor betting

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The @LadPolitics latest odds on the next Shadow Chancellor pic.twitter.com/WXIfYNHMWs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 8, 2015 Sadiq Khan at 50/1 looks like decent insurance if he doesn’t get the London Mayoral nomination. Ladbrokes have a market up on the next Shadow Chancellor. It is indicative of the anticipated Corbyn victory that John McDonnell is the current favourite. Meanwhile in the race to be Labour’s London Mayoral candidate Lady Jowell’s team think her name recognition and association with the 2012 London…

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Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

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Yvette Cooper is now Labour’s best hope for returning to power argues Keiran Pedley but it’s important that Liz Kendall does well. Has there been a more turbulent 6 months in the history of the Labour Party? I am sure there has but it is hard to imagine. If we rewind but a few months, many thought that Labour was heading for government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and yet now it is genuinely quite difficult to imagine Labour…

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Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

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As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Dear Labour if you elect Corbyn expect stories like this every day of his leadership. http://t.co/PohoGZg2F8 pic.twitter.com/fhYTWfoPKi — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 TSE Update ORB poll finds 2/3rds of people think Corbyn would be unlikely to win next general election http://t.co/UKTllXYvf1 pic.twitter.com/T94zaDKM7E — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Part II of the…

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At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

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If true. Blimey with knobs on. http://t.co/VWVLRCJf3C pic.twitter.com/tUKTjJMjCw — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back as I can’t see Corbyn calling for a delay. One of the problems I foresee…

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This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

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Team Burnham really should shout this from the rooftops. http://t.co/ustVi1YX7x pic.twitter.com/VFkhg85yss — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 The Observer have reported The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper. In a dramatic intervention less than a week before the result, Toby Perkins said he believed the complexities of the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters’ second preferences play a decisive role, left…

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We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

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We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton. http://t.co/ADnajMGgy8 pic.twitter.com/zFySSGDJkJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 A poll by Survey USA was released this weekend and it found. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday. The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice…

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One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

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Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…

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