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EXCLUSIVE: PB/Polling Matters Podcast with Damian McBride

EXCLUSIVE: PB/Polling Matters Podcast with Damian McBride

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Gordon Brown ex-senior advisor on what’s happening within Labour On the first PB/Polling Matters podcast of 2016 Keiran and Rob are joined by former special adviser to Gordon Brown, Damian McBride. Damian talks through his reactions to this week’s reshuffle, how political coups work and his advice for Jeremy Corbyn’s team. Keiran talks us through some of the polling and asks how much this reshuffle really matters and the team take questions from listeners about this week’s events, Corbyn’s future…

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Mark Pack on his polling archive database

Mark Pack on his polling archive database

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Way back in the 1980s, one day I was watching David Owen being interviewed on television, responding to probing questions about the then Alliance’s opinion polls ratings by saying there was a seasonal pattern in third party support in the polls. Frustration with the lack of detail in his answers or knowledge in the interviewer’s follow-up questions turned into a fruitless search for sources for answering the question afterwards. Which then led to the birth of my collection of opinion…

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Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the Conservative Party?

Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the Conservative Party?

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After a turbulent year the Prime Minister enters 2016 stronger than ever writes Keiran Pedley. But will it last? In many respects 2015 was a year of contradictions. On the one hand, it was the year of the political insurgent. UKIP won the best part of 4 million votes at the General Election (though failed to make the breakthrough in seats it had hoped for), the SNP won 56 of 59 seats at Westminster and Jeremy Corbyn swept away the…

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Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

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National Security is going to feature heavily in 2020 and that’s not good news for Corbyn nor Labour but it might be good news for Michael Fallon The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can…

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Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

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Given her history with the cross of St George this might not help Corbyn's patriotism issue. https://t.co/z0KbUGtWrd pic.twitter.com/OKvVxQ4ol3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 2, 2016 Several of Sunday’s papers have stories about Jeremy Corbyn’s planned ‘revenge’ reshuffle, The Sunday Telegraph report, Jeremy Corbyn is lining up Emily Thornberry as his new foreign secretary to replace Hilary Benn, in a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet expected next week, the Sunday Telegraph understands. The Labour leader is planning to appoint Ms Thornberry, the former…

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As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

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2016: Things that mostly won’t happen Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post.  So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go. To understand where we are going, we first need to understand where we are now.  Politics has changed out of all recognition since the general election.  Let’s sum up the essentials: We have a Conservative government with a tiny overall majority. We have a Labour…

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Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

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2015 – the past is a country of which I knew little Every year I sit down at Christmas and try to work out what will happen in the following twelve months.  I do this not because I have any great confidence in my predictive power – as you’re about to see, that would be an illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect – but because it is useful to have a record of what I thought might be going to happen…

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Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

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Margaret Thatcher showing off her pro-EU credentials in the 1975 referendum. pic.twitter.com/jrX2Oyz7Hj — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 27, 2015 This week William Hague explained why he would vote for the UK to Remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum, as a former Tory leader and Foreign Secretary this inevitably led to a lot of comment about someone who has been considered a Eurosceptic voting for Remain. For me the most illuminating comment came from Mark Reckless, the former Tory MP…

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