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Author: TSE

This evening’s rolling polling coverage as the economy and undecideds could win it for Remain

This evening’s rolling polling coverage as the economy and undecideds could win it for Remain

We’re starting to see swings back to Remain, even in most of the polls conducted before the events of Thursday. YouGov sees a 4% swing in a week Sunday Times YouGov poll 44-43 lead for Remain. YouGov say it has been moving remain's way in unpublished polls long before Jo Cox killed — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 18, 2016 To read YouGov correctly: last Mon 6pt leave lead. Good Morning Britain poll done midweek 2% leave lead. Ours done thurs/fri…

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ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

Latest @ComResPolls poll on the reactions of voters to a Remain or Leave victory pic.twitter.com/AaaBM9rBaf — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 18, 2016 44% would be “delighted” by a Leave vote; only 28% by a Remain vote ComRes have conducted an online poll for the Independent on Sunday/People, whilst the poll doesn’t ask a EU referendum voting intention question, because ComRes prefer their phone polls for the EURef, the supplementaries are fascinating. Labour voters are more than twice as likely as Conservative…

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Britain’s original sins?

Britain’s original sins?

Embed from Getty Images   A common thread in both the Remain and Leave campaigns is that the EU is something that is done by them to us.  Crudely, Leave wants no more of this.  And, equally crudely, Remain are saying that if we go what they will do to us (or even what we will do to ourselves by leaving) will be “such revenges…….such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the terrors of…

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BMG polls brings good news for both sides

BMG polls brings good news for both sides

From @BMGResearch, data indicates Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters https://t.co/zksowqJqxs pic.twitter.com/vnLNZ4EEMy — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 18, 2016 The modal differences strikes backs BMG have conducted simultaneous online and phone polls. The online poll sees what we’ve seen in other recent polls, with a significant swing to Leave, giving Leave a 10% lead. BMG’s debut EURef poll does give Remain a 7% lead,BMG themselves say they prefer their phone poll over the online poll because of understanding which…

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The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref

The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref

Last time there was a UK wide referendum the focus was on a large amount of money & it being better spent on the NHS pic.twitter.com/Dp8EoWhhJv — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 17, 2016 A lot of people, myself included, have often drawn comparisons between the EU referendum and the Scottish independence referendum, but perhaps the better comparison is with the AV referendum of 2011. The similarities are uncanny David Cameron is perceived to have betrayed his political allies by taking a…

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Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

Embed from Getty Images   “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” – Groucho Marx Exactly six weeks ago in my first header on the campaign from an advertising perspective I wrote “The advantages of a negative campaign by REMAIN are obvious, the unknown can be made to seem a scary place. By contrast for the LEAVERS dystopian visions are a difficult sell when the EU has been with us for…

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EU Referendum turnout betting

EU Referendum turnout betting

Sporting Index have a market up on the referendum turnout. Alastair Meeks tipped it when it was 62, but I still think at its current mid price of 68 it is still a buy for the following reasons With Leave looking like they could win, it will motivate Leave voters to turnout and ensure victory. Remain voters who might have stayed at home if the polls were showing a comfortable Remain victory will now be motivated to turnout. With Individual…

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Politics doesn’t matter today

Politics doesn’t matter today

Birstall – what we know:– MP Jo Cox in "critical condition"– Man "slightly injured"– 52-year-old man arrestedhttps://t.co/pbBKlBPWby — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 16, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/743439773998661638 On the @vote_leave bus @BorisJohnson says he is going to suspend campaigning after the shooting of Jo Cox MP — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 16, 2016 Both campaigns have rightly suspended their campaigns, the only focus should be on hoping Jo Cox makes a full and speedy recovery. TSE