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Author: TSE

An hour is a long time in politics

An hour is a long time in politics

Trump now ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, On Betfair he's gone from 11 to 3.4 in less than hour — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 This is going to be a long night. — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016 When it comes to American looks like they do want to upset the apple cart TSE

It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

Clinton now ahead in both Florida and North Carolina. If that is sustained, the race to be Next #POTUS is done and dusted. #ElectionNight — Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) November 9, 2016 BREAKING: Clinton will win DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, NJ, RI; Trump will win OK, MS and TN, CNN projects https://t.co/yzr69NrOky #CNNElection pic.twitter.com/orSAxGP5Cz — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) November 9, 2016 Just a reminder Farage also conceded on June 23 — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 So Rubio takes FL…

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As we await the first results

As we await the first results

#BREAKING: Early exit poll shows voters are anxious about @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/C6MgWy36Km pic.twitter.com/MCxpW5krZU — POLITICO (@politico) November 8, 2016 Preliminary exit polls: 51% say Trump’s treatment of women bothers them a lot, while 44% say so of Clinton’s emails https://t.co/5giPSNelRv — This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 8, 2016 The ethnic breakdown in the exit poll might not be as diverse as some Dems wanted #USElection2016 — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) November 8, 2016 President Kerry thanks you for your interest in early exit…

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Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

FBI finds no evidence of criminality in latest batch of @HillaryClinton emailshttps://t.co/qbXYhlMUia #USElection pic.twitter.com/wihbpnRJt4 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) November 6, 2016 Trump’s price on Betfair has gone from around 4.9 to over 6 just now. Tonight’s news will come as a relief to Team Clinton. My prediction on the back of tonight’s FBI intervention, if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency on Tuesday James Comey will be resigning shortly thereafter, lest she appoints him the US Ambassador to the Islamic…

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Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

Embed from Getty Images If Trump can win the Presidency then Corbyn can become Prime Minister for the same reasons With the White House race observers on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to draw similarities to politics in the United Kingdom, namely Trump is analogous to Brexit, but perhaps the better analogy is Donald Trump is more akin to Jeremy Corbyn. At first glance the roisterer that is Donald Trump seems like the antithesis of Jeremy Corbyn but…

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Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Embed from Getty Images Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states? One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result….

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If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

Clinton enjoys 15% lead in early voting Reuters/Ipsos poll finds https://t.co/xtM1L2Ozc9 pic.twitter.com/yoLU9ZNhlo — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 30, 2016 One of the reasons I like betting on US Presidential races is that there’s an awful lot of data made available before election day that allows you to see how people have voted that simply isn’t available in UK elections because of electoral law. This info helps influence my betting, so I like this from Ipsos and Reuters asking early voters how…

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Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

Embed from Getty Images Both Trump & Clinton have the potential to voluntarily be one term Presidents and that benefits their nominees for Vice President for the 2020 race. No, that headline wasn’t a typo, even before the winner of the 2016 race has been decided, Ladbrokes really do have a market up on who will win the 2020 White House race. I do wonder if both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, by choice, will be voluntary one term Presidents….

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